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Prediction markets for AutoNation

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.17%chance

5701074185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55330

1810

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.02%chance

275885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14144

7121

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52%chance

475654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2864

1090

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

95.9%chance

394959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3904

99

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

9.69%chance

363661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

328

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Sep 2, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

141900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4004

1877

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Mar 26, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

70%chance

271768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1633

376

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

972

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

Which of these people will be on Taskmaster UK before 2030?

Nov 6, 1:06 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Larry Dean

Celya AB

Olga Koch

Lara Ricote

Pippa Evans

Rob Brydon

Michael McIntyre

Paul Merton

Rob Auton

David Mitchell

Ray O'Leary

Ed Byrne

Henry Paker

Benjamin Partridge

Matt Parker

MC Hammersmith

Adrian Bliss

Ted Hill

58

40

35

25

20

20

20

20

15

15

15

15

10

10

10

10

10

5

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