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Prediction markets for AutoNation

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.5%chance

5621045650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46103

2172

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

12723488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3006

1677

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.95%chance

265875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14165

7111

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.49%chance

475638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2881

1075

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

95.9%chance

394959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3904

99

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

9.69%chance

363661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

328

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2027?

Sep 2, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.43%chance

121750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4095

1814

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Mar 26, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66%chance

271666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1531

423

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

972

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

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