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Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

498762125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26489

3780

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.39%chance

12022705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3980

1375

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027

Jun 25, 10:30 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7914918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

817

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

33%chance

506638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.8%chance

465390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2633

1338

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.05%chance

234313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7939

Will we be able to buy a €25k autonomous car that doesn't require driving license in mid 2029 in Italy?

Jun 2, 12:42 PMJun 2, 9:59 PM

11.81%chance

363341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2733

366

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Jan 5, 10:58 AMJan 6, 6:29 PM

69.53%chance

342567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

426

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?

Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

351585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

972

Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?

Aug 23, 12:51 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

14705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

854

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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