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Prediction markets for Avail Project

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2218434

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1810384

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

4

2

2

1

1

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

458422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2856

100

Alcoa Australia 2026 alumina production exceeds 6.0 Mt (6,000 kt)

Jan 12, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.13%chance

61694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

732

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.07%chance

161264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

604

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

241210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

891

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.21%chance

13500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

955

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.3%chance

7432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

910

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

14386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

923

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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