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Prediction markets for Avail Project

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

66.35%chance

2911708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

591

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.79%chance

5810091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2309

433

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

179634

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

5

2

1

1

1

Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?

Aug 26, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.72%chance

161718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

347

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

241179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

886

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.65%chance

12450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

978

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

11440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

14386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

923

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

47.09%chance

3136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

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