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Prediction markets for Avail Project

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

75.11%chance

2811608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

836

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.3%chance

569655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?

Aug 26, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.72%chance

161718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

347

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

22.27%chance

141523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

535

Will China collapse before 2030

Dec 16, 3:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

201300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

907

Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?

Aug 23, 5:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.69%chance

151254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

594

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

241179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1280

886

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

11440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.33%chance

12440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

982

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.67%chance

13373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

946

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