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Prediction markets for Average Booking

Was 9/11 an inside job? (2100)

Oct 19, 3:51 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

7.03%chance

272892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

866

By 2030, will an electric car be the most economical car you can buy in the US?

May 23, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.5%chance

171023

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1878

672

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Clayface

Supergirl

68

16

8

6

2

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

9180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

99

How big will the Google Trends Interest in autogynephilia in 2026-2028 be?

Jun 20, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.15%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

82

60

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What books/reading will I enjoy? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 12, 5:05 AMSep 11, 5:01 AM

00

OptionProbability

(Reserved 1)

(Reserved 2)

(Reserved 3)

(Reserved 4)

50

50

50

50

Recommend a “must-read” book for 2024 (that you would read a critical review of)

Dec 16, 7:37 PM

00

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