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Prediction markets for Aware
Prediction markets for Aware
Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?
May 17, 3:43 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
62.84%
chance
11
3842
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1300
769
ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of
Mar 24, 9:48 AM
Mar 24, 11:15 AM
83.55%
chance
33
2631
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1675
688
[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?
Jul 9, 2:27 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
47.26%
chance
10
1490
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1056
947
Derek Chauvin's sentence reduced due to evidence jury wasn't aware of by 2028?
Dec 24, 6:26 PM
Jan 2, 10:59 AM
66.8%
chance
6
352
Option
Votes
NO
YES
142
70
If we encounter intelligent aliens, will they turn out to lack self-awareness? [read description]
Feb 11, 7:59 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
43.31%
chance
5
99
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
107
Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 23, 11:16 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
56.48%
chance
3
64
Option
Votes
NO
YES
134
17
Will "Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Lan..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 31, 8:53 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
13.93%
chance
1
5
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1005
999
Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Apr 14, 6:53 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
85%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Who has highest situational awareness?
May 7, 8:18 PM
4
0
Who has highest situational awareness: Isaak Freeman, Jose Luis Ricon, or Alexey Guzey?
Apr 25, 2:33 PM
0
0
Who has higher situational awareness: Vincent Weisser or Johannes Hagemann
Apr 25, 3:20 PM
2
0
Who has higher situational awareness: Trenton Bricken or Chelsea Voss?
Apr 24, 11:39 PM
0
0
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