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Prediction markets for Aware

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.99%chance

93816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.47%chance

133284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of

Mar 24, 9:48 AMMar 24, 11:15 AM

83.55%chance

332631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1675

688

Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025.

Mar 28, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.12%chance

352145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

759

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will the Senate pass the Antisemitism Awareness Act before EOY 2025?

May 2, 2:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

4%chance

9538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Derek Chauvin's sentence reduced due to evidence jury wasn't aware of by 2028?

Dec 24, 6:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 AM

66.8%chance

6352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

Will "Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 7, 12:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.43%chance

3150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

610

If we encounter intelligent aliens, will they turn out to lack self-awareness? [read description]

Feb 11, 7:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.31%chance

599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

107

Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 23, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

56.48%chance

364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

17

Will "Me, Myself, and AI: the Situational Awareness..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 9:12 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.22%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

861

Will "Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Lan..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 31, 8:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.93%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

999

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