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Prediction markets for Aware

Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.53%chance

264180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

477

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

ChatGPT (Or LLMs really) have discovered regularities in language that humans are not aware of

Mar 24, 9:48 AMMar 24, 11:15 AM

80.36%chance

332681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1447

738

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

Will Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?

Jul 30, 3:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.72%chance

41431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2354

425

Derek Chauvin's sentence reduced due to evidence jury wasn't aware of by 2028?

Dec 24, 6:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 AM

66.8%chance

6352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

If we encounter intelligent aliens, will they turn out to lack self-awareness? [read description]

Feb 11, 7:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.31%chance

599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

107

Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 23, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

56.48%chance

364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

17

Will "Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Lan..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 31, 8:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.93%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

999

Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Who has HIGHEST situational awareness? Paul Christiano, David Krueger, or Jacob Steinhardt?

Apr 25, 2:35 PM

10

Who has higher situational awareness: Vincent Weisser or Johannes Hagemann

Apr 25, 3:20 PM

20

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