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Prediction markets for AWS

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.13%chance

11518640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15117

7622

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.74%chance

306234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14661

6824

Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?

Sep 2, 2:49 PMSep 10, 2:59 AM

10.39%chance

374575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2936

341

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

473191

OptionProbability

Starlink

Microsoft Teams

Google ads

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

AWS

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

44

42

41

34

26

25

23

Which episode of Black Mirror is the next 25 years most likely to resemble?

Aug 18, 5:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

332036

OptionProbability

Metalhead

Joan is Awful

Other

Hated in the Nation

USS Callister

Fifteen Million Merits

San Junipero

The Waldo Moment

White Christmas

Hang the DJ

Nosedive

The Entire History of You

Shut up and Dance

The National Anthem

Archange

16

13

13

12

10

7

6

6

4

3

3

3

1

1

0

Will AWS remain the market share leader in cloud infrastructure services by Q4 2025?

Mar 22, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.79%chance

141197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1891

832

Why will "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" resolve N/A?

Mar 25, 2:57 AMMar 28, 3:59 AM

17825

OptionProbability

It will not resolve N/A

Too many existing humans suffer death

The concept of "maximum attainable cosmopolitan value" is not meaningful

80% of currently attainable cosmopolitan value becomes unattainable

As a demonstration of treacherous turns, trolling, or lulz

Too many existing humans suffer other awful fates

Some other reason

No reason given after 30 days

35

18

18

13

7

5

2

2

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will Claude Sonnet 3 still be publicly available on AWS bedrock by:

Nov 1, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

11/9

11/16

11/21

11/30

12/31

34

34

34

34

24

Will AWS have an operating margin >= 30% for 2028?

Oct 18, 1:33 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Favorite cloud-computing platform?

Oct 12, 5:37 PMOct 13, 5:36 PM

220

OptionProbability

Amazon AWS

Microsoft Azure

Google Cloud

Other

41

21

21

16

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