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Prediction markets for Axis

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.94%chance

171967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1973

753

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

74.85%chance

211778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

156

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 22, 6:29 PM

48.71%chance

17579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

204

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

Will a high-ranking Trump Administration official (incl Musk) describe the US as being in an "axis" with Russia in 2025?

Mar 2, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.49%chance

11275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

What “first in North America” roller coaster model will Six Flags Magic Mountain announce for 2026? (Add answers)

Nov 19, 12:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3217

OptionProbability

Vekoma Inverted Motorbike

Vekoma Launched Flying Coaster (i.e. F.L.Y.)

Magic Mountain does not announce a new-to-North America coaster by 1/1/27

Other

S&S Axis

Mack Stryker

Mack Hyper

88

5

2

2

1

1

1

Will "Using axis lines for good or evil" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 3:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

4.34%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

104

Will Tim Peake go to space on a UK-Axiom mission before 2030?

Oct 27, 8:14 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

48.52%chance

680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Where would you place yourself on the 3-axis political compass?

May 3, 5:21 PM

360

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