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Prediction markets for AXS

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.71%chance

81287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

261

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

Will the wild population of the Axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 1, 11:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.61%chance

6171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

575

457

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

33.19%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Exit valuation of Axflow (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

65

12

12

12

Will Michael Levin get a pet axolotl by EOY 2035?

Sep 16, 7:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Steve Horvath get a pet axolotl by EOY2035?

Sep 16, 8:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Steve Horvath OR Steve Austad OR Matt Kaeberlein OR David Sinclair OR adic_9 get a pet axolotl by EOY2032?

Sep 16, 7:52 AMSep 24, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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