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Prediction markets for AXS

What year will the UK TV Licence Fee be axed?

Aug 9, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43122

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2025

30

24

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

0

Will we observe clear evidence of axions by January 1st 2030

Feb 14, 1:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.33%chance

182193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

722

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will "On The Independence Axiom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 10, 2:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.71%chance

81287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

261

Will an Axiom built module be attached to the ISS before 2027?

Oct 4, 12:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

6804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

764

5

Axiom of Choice stock

Apr 2, 7:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.31%chance

20526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1328

823

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

Will the wild population of the Axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum) become extinct by 2100?

Mar 1, 11:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.61%chance

6171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

575

457

Will Axel Dumas (CEO of Hermès) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 14, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

2103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

36

Will an axolotl unit (cheat code counts) appear in Age of Mythology: Retold by EOY 2034?

Sep 16, 7:57 AMSep 24, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Jose Ricon OR Adam Marblestone OR Ed Boyden OR Steve Horvath OR Jeremy nixon get a pet axolotl by 2032?

Sep 16, 7:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the harvard OEB department get a pet axolotl by EOY 2032?

Sep 16, 7:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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