BA News
Prediction markets for BA
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM
20.63%chance
7944509
OptionVotes
11563
6673
OptionVotes
29902
3349
OptionProbability
1297
539
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.76%chance
17325218
OptionVotes
11898
9090
Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.08%chance
5312290
OptionVotes
19219
7438
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM
38.43%chance
207725
OptionVotes
12657
7901
Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?
Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
66.08%chance
637720
OptionVotes
13928
7195
Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?
Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
45.13%chance
367292
OptionVotes
10996
9099
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
42.29%chance
206464
OptionVotes
12015
8196
SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot
Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM
53.8%chance
94548
OptionVotes
10795
9269
OptionProbability
459
432
William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?
Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.2%chance
113470
OptionVotes
10161
9841