BAC News

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.54%chance

15987897

OptionVotes

YES

4274

2558

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

71.05%chance

17725328

OptionVotes

YES

12006

9046

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

1417

1073

Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3516254

OptionProbability

Micron Technology (MU)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Chevron (CVX)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Apple (AAPL)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Cisco (CSCO)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Philip Morris (PM)

Costco (COST)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

Lam Research (LRCX)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Amazon (AMZN)

Walmart (WMT)

Citigroup (C)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Meta Platforms (META)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Visa (V)

AbbVie (ABBV)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

GE Aerospace (GE)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

Mastercard (MA)

Salesforce (CRM)

Home Depot (HD)

IBM (IBM)

Tesla (TSLA)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Oracle (ORCL)

American Express (AXP)

Netflix (NFLX)

McDonald's (MCD)

AppLovin (APP)

Guillotines have a come back by 2030

Sep 27, 3:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.56%chance

2314901

OptionVotes

YES

24224

4128

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2050?

Oct 30, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

1066584

OptionVotes

YES

2853

1798

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

1331

1135

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

95.69%chance

235289

OptionVotes

YES

4731

213

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

Jan 17, 11:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

281592

OptionProbability

dexedrine (dextroamphetamine) 5mg

5mg methamphetamine qAM PO

Increasing high quality fat and protein intake; reducing sugar, simple carbs, and grains. [this is not an aim to go into ketosis, no need to be extreme]

Magnesium threonate. 1 capsule in the morning, one before bed. Result- need one less hour of sleep!

Methylphenidate at the correct dose

Eat more complex carbohydrates (chickpea pasta, lentil pasta? - trader joes has some good lentil pasta, and goodles are a decent mac and cheese replacement).

Supplement to ensure adequate vitamin and mineral levels

Chewing nicotine gum while learning new material

Drinking 2-3 cups of coffee daily.

Chewing something like a camel. Try for real

Alpha-GPC

Cold water immersion. (Can be as simple as =>1min in shower under cold water)

modafinil 50 mg 2-3 times per week (lowish dose; could go lower for less effect)

Eat high quality fats

Eat more vegetables

Intermittent fasting with an 8-10 hour feeding window, following the same scheduled hours each day. [even if your schedule is in flux, your fasting/feeding window should remain relatively constant]

Vitamin D3 - 2000 IU daily

Drink enough alcohol to achieve ~0.075 BAC before working on tasks requiring creativity / lateral thinking

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.38%chance

131078

OptionVotes

YES

1294

1116

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

OptionProbability

Yes

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

BAC News

Prediction markets for BAC

Prediction markets for BAC

Prediction markets for BAC

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Guillotines have a come back by 2030

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2050?

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

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