BAC News

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

YES

4435

2419

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

Jan 20, 7:14 PMDec 20, 10:59 AM

18.25%chance

22065966

OptionVotes

YES

2117

473

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.76%chance

17325218

OptionVotes

YES

11898

9090

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

8721359

OptionVotes

YES

1417

1073

Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2312655

OptionProbability

Micron Technology (MU)

Lam Research (LRCX)

Walmart (WMT)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Chevron (CVX)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Costco (COST)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Home Depot (HD)

Philip Morris (PM)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Meta Platforms (META)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Amazon (AMZN)

Cisco (CSCO)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Citigroup (C)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

McDonald's (MCD)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

IBM (IBM)

GE Aerospace (GE)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

Apple (AAPL)

Mastercard (MA)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

Visa (V)

AbbVie (ABBV)

American Express (AXP)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Tesla (TSLA)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Netflix (NFLX)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Oracle (ORCL)

Salesforce (CRM)

AppLovin (APP)

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJun 15, 6:59 AM

95.01%chance

6910593

OptionVotes

YES

5858

248

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

1331

1135

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

YES

1346

743

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

Jan 17, 11:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

271482

OptionProbability

dexedrine (dextroamphetamine) 5mg

5mg methamphetamine qAM PO

Increasing high quality fat and protein intake; reducing sugar, simple carbs, and grains. [this is not an aim to go into ketosis, no need to be extreme]

Magnesium threonate. 1 capsule in the morning, one before bed. Result- need one less hour of sleep!

Methylphenidate at the correct dose

Eat more complex carbohydrates (chickpea pasta, lentil pasta? - trader joes has some good lentil pasta, and goodles are a decent mac and cheese replacement).

Supplement to ensure adequate vitamin and mineral levels

Chewing nicotine gum while learning new material

Drinking 2-3 cups of coffee daily.

Chewing something like a camel. Try for real

Cold water immersion. (Can be as simple as =>1min in shower under cold water)

modafinil 50 mg 2-3 times per week (lowish dose; could go lower for less effect)

Eat more vegetables

Eat high quality fats

Intermittent fasting with an 8-10 hour feeding window, following the same scheduled hours each day. [even if your schedule is in flux, your fasting/feeding window should remain relatively constant]

Vitamin D3 - 2000 IU daily

Drink enough alcohol to achieve ~0.075 BAC before working on tasks requiring creativity / lateral thinking

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

Feb 7, 7:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.8%chance

8593

OptionVotes

YES

1295

1115

When will Shefali move (back) to SF?

Oct 25, 1:22 AMJun 1, 1:16 AM

OptionProbability

Nov 2025

Dec 2025

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

Apr 2026

May 2026

Not before May 2026

BAC News

Prediction markets for BAC

Prediction markets for BAC

Prediction markets for BAC

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?

Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?

Will I get my money back from the cruise casino?

When will Shefali move (back) to SF?

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