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Prediction markets for Balance AI

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9016869

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2025

31

13

12

10

9

8

6

4

3

2

0

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Sep 25?

Sep 21, 6:04 PMSep 25, 11:59 AM

73.82%chance

114821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

596

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.1%chance

133409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.98%chance

102928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

33

7

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $75 before Sep 27?

Sep 23, 8:22 AMSep 26, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

51655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

866

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

64.4%chance

6463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

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