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Prediction markets for Balance AI

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

32

23

21

8

8

5

3

0

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

520

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Feb 24, 4:50 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

462954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

724

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

20%chance

132932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

Dec 15, 5:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

192921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

810

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?

Apr 17, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.32%chance

291710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1715

583

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

62.64%chance

4411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

772

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