OptionVotes
YES
NO
1466
900
OptionProbability
US Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Bank of England
Reserve Bank of India
Bank of Korea
Bank of Canada
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Swiss National Bank
People’s Bank of China
100
16
10
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
62
32
31
14
12
8
1568
886
2036-2040
2041-2045
2031-2035
2046-2050
2026-2030
26
22
21
20
1115
1009
212
47
130
77