OptionVotes
YES
NO
1466
900
4253
123
OptionProbability
Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)
Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons
An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task
Other (10m+ deaths)
Worldwide Pandemic
350+ million climate-displaced persons annually
US Treasury payment default or missed obligation
55
37
32
14
12
10
8
1568
886
European Central Bank
Bank of England
Bank of Japan
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
People’s Bank of China
Swiss National Bank
Reserve Bank of India
Bank of Korea
Bank of Canada
US Federal Reserve
77
74
66
50
31
2036-2040
2041-2045
2031-2035
2046-2050
2026-2030
26
22
21
20
11
1095
1027
206
48
149
67