Bank Policy Institute News

Bank Policy Institute Urges Congress to Close GENIUS Act Stablecoin Interest Loophole Over Trillions in Deposit Outflows

1 year ago

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

16.53%chance

5010354

OptionVotes

YES

1717

793

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.63%chance

101450

OptionVotes

YES

1567

390

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

1029

977

Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]

Jun 28, 11:54 PMDec 10, 6:59 AM

14477

OptionProbability

October Meeting

September Meeting

July Meeting

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.85%chance

6253

OptionVotes

YES

287

Manifold have a central bank and banking apparatus by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.28%chance

7143

OptionVotes

YES

187

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.4%chance

8119

OptionVotes

YES

110

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Prediction markets for Bank Policy Institute

Prediction markets for Bank Policy Institute

Prediction markets for Bank Policy Institute

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Fed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Manifold have a central bank and banking apparatus by 2030?

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

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