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Banking Committee News

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1.42%chance

2814452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8339

120

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

16.53%chance

5010354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

793

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

223816

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

55

54

53

49

44

43

38

36

31

15

WIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?

Jan 12, 2:12 AMJan 12, 2:11 AM

3.4%chance

503432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

533

19

Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?

Aug 4, 3:21 AMSep 23, 11:59 PM

1%chance

181264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Who will be the next permanent president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Nov 15, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71145

OptionProbability

Other

Paula Tkac

Cheryl Venable

Kartik Athreya

84

9

5

2

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.6%chance

13470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Feb 25, 12:45 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4237

OptionProbability

2.00% to 2.75%

3.00% to 3.75%

4.00% to 4.75%

5.00% to 5.75%

below 1%

1.00% to 1.75%

6% or higher

22

22

16

13

10

10

7

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 25, 12:28 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

2127

OptionProbability

4.00%

4.25%

3.75%

4.50%

3.50%

4.75%

2.50% or less

2.75%

3.00%

3.25%

5.00% or more

18

17

13

13

8

8

5

5

5

5

3

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