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Banking Committee News

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

213780

OptionProbability

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

99

95

95

80

80

72

56

54

54

49

44

43

40

36

34

17

WIll Jerome Powell formally be indicted?

Jan 12, 2:12 AMJan 12, 2:11 AM

10.76%chance

462837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Who will be the next permanent president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta?

Nov 15, 11:31 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

61093

OptionProbability

Other

Paula Tkac

Cheryl Venable

Kartik Athreya

79

13

6

2

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Feb 2, 9:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11536

OptionProbability

Before August 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before May 1, 2026

Before June 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

82

66

50

50

10

0

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

What will be the Bank of England interest rate on Jan 1, 2030?

Feb 25, 12:45 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4237

OptionProbability

2.00% to 2.75%

3.00% to 3.75%

4.00% to 4.75%

5.00% to 5.75%

below 1%

1.00% to 1.75%

6% or higher

22

22

16

13

10

10

7

What will be the Bank of England interest rate on Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 25, 12:28 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

254

OptionProbability

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

2.50% or less

2.75%

4.00%

4.25%

4.50%

4.75%

5.00% or more

16

14

14

11

9

9

6

5

5

5

5

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