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Prediction markets for Bankruptcy Court

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1117551

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

26

14

5

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.99%chance

191753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1815

628

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.42%chance

13986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

24

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1258

854

Will US Gov pay off X/Twitter's debt by 2027?

Jan 7, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.68%chance

7540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

512

20

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.2%chance

6410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

30

Midjourney lawsuit damages above how much?

Jun 11, 6:10 PMDec 31, 5:58 PM

9202

OptionProbability

Above $1,000,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $50,000,000

Above $100,000,000

Above $250,000,000

Above $500,000,000

60

59

54

45

33

10

Chicago declares bankruptcy by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will there be an SBF civil trial?

Nov 12, 1:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.38%chance

7139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244

110

Will Amazon buy Saks?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.39%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

69

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