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Prediction markets for Bar

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.49%chance

113528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10103

9898

Will Chili's Grill and Bar still exist in 2030?

Aug 28, 8:07 PMFeb 9, 6:59 AM

95%chance

153118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3998

589

Marine Le Pen legally barred from running for French President in 2027?

Nov 21, 8:25 PMMay 1, 12:00 AM

2.75%chance

232794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

605

17

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.51%chance

452567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

1237

Will Kim Kardashian ever pass the California bar exam?

Nov 8, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.63%chance

162035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

Will Noam Chomsky get a black bar on hnews when he passes away

May 12, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

26.86%chance

161194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

101

Will Israel be barred from the 2028 Olympics?

May 25, 6:02 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

5.19%chance

14791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

428

23

Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028?

Dec 2, 7:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.75%chance

14653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

525

Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028?

Apr 12, 8:55 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

13.68%chance

18625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

871

395

Drive through bars available in a US state before 2034

Jun 27, 3:55 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

9.13%chance

7385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

351

124

Will "The bar is lower than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 17, 4:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.4%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

993

will lauren de laguna still be bar certified in at least one state at the end of 2028?

Dec 5, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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