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Prediction markets for Barnes
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM
5.72%chance
19470814
OptionVotes
5721
1690
Who will be selected for England’s final 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup?
Jul 24, 4:32 PMJun 10, 10:59 PM
713649
OptionProbability
88
86
86
85
83
80
79
75
70
70
67
67
66
64
62
62
62
61
61
59
59
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
48
48
46
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43
39
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38
34
32
28
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25
25
22
22
22
22
20
20
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17
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14
13
13
11
11
11
11
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
40.66%chance
2812529
OptionVotes
1190
462
OptionProbability
94
92
91
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
84
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83
83
83
82
81
81
79
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78
76
76
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75
73
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72
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72
70
69
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66
66
65
65
62
59
59
55
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
32
29
23
17
16
14
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
202370
OptionProbability
64
6
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Which basketball players will win an NBA Championship someday? [Add responses]
Feb 18, 6:36 PMAug 26, 3:59 AM
221201
OptionProbability
100
99
76
66
63
60
52
52
42
33
33
30
30
18
17
15
13
11
9
1
OptionProbability
91
3
3
3
OptionVotes
63
40
Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?
Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.5%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?
Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100