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Prediction markets for Barnes
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM
5.95%chance
19570826
OptionVotes
5527
1702
Who will be selected for England’s final 26-man squad for the 2026 World Cup?
Jul 24, 4:32 PMJun 10, 10:59 PM
917158
OptionProbability
92
92
90
88
82
82
79
79
74
74
73
73
71
70
70
62
60
59
58
56
55
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54
52
50
48
45
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43
40
34
34
31
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23
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13
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11
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8
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
42%chance
2812543
OptionVotes
1204
443
OptionProbability
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
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81
79
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76
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73
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72
70
69
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66
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65
62
62
59
59
55
54
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50
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50
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50
50
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
34
34
34
34
34
32
32
24
23
17
16
14
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Oct 24, 11:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
202370
OptionProbability
64
6
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Which basketball players will win an NBA Championship someday? [Add responses]
Feb 18, 6:36 PMAug 26, 3:59 AM
221201
OptionProbability
100
99
76
66
63
60
52
52
42
33
33
30
30
18
17
15
13
11
9
1
OptionProbability
87
6
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
54
50
50
50
48
44
41
33
20
9
OptionProbability
91
3
3
3
OptionVotes
63
40
Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?
Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.5%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
Will Serena Ge join forces with Matthew Barnett, Tamay, and Mechanize?
Jun 11, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:57 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100