Base Network News

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Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines

The existence of the AGI and the model name were leaked prior to release and official announcement

Developed by a US company

Trained with synthetic data and self-play

Doomsday clock moved at least one full minute closer to midnight due to this AI

Transformer based or mix of Transformer and other architectures

Has an internal World Model able to simulate basic physics without external tools

Not available in EU countries initially for the first 4 months after public release

Based on/inspired by algorithms from the human brain (beyond neural networks).

Public announcement was made after 1 year or more of finishing training

Solves at least one of the seven Millennium Problems

Not a static model; weights change during inference

Used by a Figure humanoid robot

Infinite context window

Based on/inspired by OpenAI's Sora (resolves YES if explicitly stated by developers in announcement or paper)

This market will resolve N/A

Is OpenAI's GPT-6, whatever name or architecture it has

No consensus that it's AGI until over a month after being announced and interacting with people outside the lab.

Developed by a Chinese company

Open sourced

Developed by the open-source community instead of a company

Developed by an EU company

It will be based on deep learning

It will be based on neural networks

Gary Marcus will be completely unimpressed by its capabilities

At least one person directly involved in its creation will be a trillionaire

More than 10 000 human hours will be spent to make sure it does not return politically incorrect outputs

It will run on Nvidia GPUs

It will wipe out humanity after the rapid recursive self-improvement

Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population as a prosaic thing, e.g. “it is just matrices to predict the next word”

Right before the extermination event, at least 25% of human population will think that they are smarter than it.

Before the extermination event, it will make significant extraordinary contributions to science, technology, and human well-being.

When communicating with human words, it will use the word “delve” more often than it occurs in human texts on average

It will be created by OpenAI, Anthropic or DeepMind

It will be some advanced form of a multimodal transformer

It will run on an AI architecture which is not known as of 2024

Right before the extermination event, it will be considered by the majority of human population a superintelligence with the capabilities beyond their comprehension

Meta will try to create an open source version of it

The process of wiping out humanity will take less than 24 hours from the first signs of attempts to wipe out humanity till the last human on Earth killed

Before wiping out humanity, it will attempt some trade with humanity

Right before the extermination event, alignment will be generally considered a solved problem

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