Base Power News

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

344298

43497

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.07%chance

556181842

OptionVotes

YES

2730

1984

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

6680069

OptionProbability

Other

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2026

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6361665

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

1050

916

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19231439

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

31.72%chance

193088

OptionVotes

YES

3388

1694

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

10867

9202

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.63%chance

371238

OptionVotes

YES

1057

946

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

Aug 19, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5387

OptionProbability

Later/never

2040s

2050s

2060s

2070s

2030s

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

Nov 25, 10:02 PMDec 2, 11:59 PM

6200

OptionProbability

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

Alireza Arafi

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

Nov 11, 4:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.79%chance

20180

OptionVotes

YES

1004

987

Base Power News

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

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