Base Power News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

7386

3139

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9845254

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

12426746

OptionProbability

Mojtaba Khomeini

Benjamin Netanyahu

Donald Trump

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.37%chance

174255

OptionVotes

YES

12410

8058

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

5594

2925

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

121748

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

381311

OptionVotes

YES

1018

873

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

Aug 19, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5387

OptionProbability

Later/never

2040s

2050s

2060s

2070s

2030s

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

Nov 11, 4:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.91%chance

22251

OptionVotes

YES

1046

942

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

Apr 13, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

The 4-stage escalation trap and which stage we're at now

Iran's nuclear strategy — how many weapons, test detonation logic, timeline

Global power shifts — China, Russia, Iran as a combined bloc vs. the US

Oil control — Iran + Russia potentially controlling 30% of world oil supply

Trump's options — ground troops, oil fields, the deal with Israel containment

NATO's future — whether Article 5 still has any real meaning

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

Isadore Hall

Other

Base Power News

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

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