Base Power News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

14104

2043

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

112190087

OptionProbability

Other

Jul - Dec 2027

Jan - Jun 2027

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2026

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

16677010

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mojtaba Khomeini

Donald Trump

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6662252

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

YES

1287

787

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20342056

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

226652

OptionVotes

YES

12736

7852

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

4493

3587

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

121773

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

401387

OptionVotes

YES

1055

796

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

Nov 11, 4:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

49.32%chance

24487

OptionVotes

YES

1144

830

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

Aug 19, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5387

OptionProbability

Later/never

2040s

2050s

2060s

2070s

2030s

Base Power News

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Prediction markets for Base Power

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?

First decade when civilian nuclear power uses more thorium-based than uranium-based fuel?

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