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Prediction markets for Base
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
7%chance
5392340
OptionVotes
2345
815
Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)
Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.83%chance
33080982
OptionVotes
1003
997
"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?
Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM
10.01%chance
13058092
OptionVotes
29977
3336
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Apr 2, 6:27 PMJan 1, 9:00 PM
5.51%chance
4331017
OptionVotes
3437
667
By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?
Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.22%chance
3310803
OptionVotes
2591
618
Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]
Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
21.13%chance
565495
OptionVotes
193
52
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.65%chance
625231
OptionVotes
3906
1917
In the US, will the base model Nintendo Switch 2 get a price increase before it gets a price cut, before 2030?
Jun 9, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.48%chance
193143
OptionVotes
1291
775
OptionVotes
1181
881
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
Will Google Open Source a 7b or larger model based on their Titans Architecture before 2026?
Mar 8, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47%chance
8308
OptionVotes
1062
942
based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES
Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM
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