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Prediction markets for Based Labs

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10210820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3425

1696

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

1449165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3257

2011

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

216394

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

Before 2026

68

8

8

7

7

0

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)

Oct 9, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.59%chance

332308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

1487

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Jan 24, 12:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.66%chance

301568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

759

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

842

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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