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Prediction markets for Baseline Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.7%chance

304226846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3805

789

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.34%chance

297153069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

859

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

35%chance

298114879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

1177

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.14%chance

24393000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

944

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3035831

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

26

25

19

11

9

4

4

1

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2420071

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

29

21

19

11

7

7

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2218434

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1312420

OptionProbability

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

22

21

18

12

12

8

5

2

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

Will BMW Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0

Above 1.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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