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Prediction markets for Baseline Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.24%chance

299224984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

772

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

12.59%chance

292149875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1972

845

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

292113507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1369

1140

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

23390642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1204

913

Will we get AGI before 2032?

Nov 28, 10:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42%chance

21158696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

875

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5531844

OptionProbability

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

3.5-4 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

16

15

13

12

11

10

8

7

4

4

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2325737

OptionProbability

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

40-50%

80-90%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

24

23

23

12

10

4

4

1

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1918907

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

23

21

18

13

9

9

4

2

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2018339

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

18

11

7

6

6

5

4

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1110745

OptionProbability

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

21

20

16

12

12

9

7

2

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

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