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Prediction markets for Baseline Markets

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.85%chance

311232411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5786

714

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

14.33%chance

310156274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

877

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

38.6%chance

308127429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

1063

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

26397066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

971

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

35.43%chance

66790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20520

10809

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

30.83%chance

43501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13499

7975

Will the MISO Indiana annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 52 USD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

32.79%chance

33501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12321

8650

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

28.58%chance

42706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12128

9013

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11500

8696

Will BMW Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0

Above 1.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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