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Prediction markets for Bashe

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

2.3%chance

286658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5674

690

Tim + Bashu (Intrusive Thoughts) stock

Feb 11, 5:40 AM

264369

OptionProbability

NO

YES

548

408

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

19.55%chance

353278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

439

Will there be a zensho-yusho (15-0) in Makuuchi in 2026? [sumo basho]

Jan 27, 7:08 PMNov 28, 11:59 PM

6.34%chance

41551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

866

The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026

Mar 6, 10:24 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

361484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

60

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.49%chance

11460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

108

Will there be a 3 (or more) way tiebreaker in the Makuuchi division of a Grand Sumo Tournament in 2026? (basho)

Jan 18, 10:43 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

38.96%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

799

Atamifuji to win a Basho in 2026

Mar 25, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Have I intellectually outpaced Destiny?

Dec 12, 2:35 PMOct 12, 10:59 PM

68.83%chance

779

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

132

Does Everything Truly Change with Bashar?

Oct 11, 7:56 PMDec 31, 8:50 PM

42.55%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Which will be independent first: Texas or Bashkortostan?

Dec 29, 7:21 PMFeb 12, 7:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

Bashkortostan

Texas

62

38

Will Qiaochu Yuan and Brian Basham ever talk again by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 11:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

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