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Will Trump terminate any of Elon Musk's government contracts before 2026?

Jun 5, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.63%chance

5711844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2218

76

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

2511110

OptionProbability

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Christian Union (CU)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Denk

98

97

87

38

32

8

5

5

5

4

3

2

1

1

1

What Will Happen: Dutch Elections 2025

Jun 9, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

269460

OptionProbability

VVD will be among the 3 biggest parties

VVD will be among the 4 biggest parties

PVV will get 29 seats or less

50Plus gets at least 1 seat

D66 will be in Top 3 Biggest Parties

At least 1 party leader resigns

D66 leader becomes Prime Minister

No cabinet before municipal election

Housing will be the biggest topic in the campaigns

CDA and PvdA/GL will both join coalition

CDA and JA21 both join the coalition

PvdA/GL and VVD will both join coalition

Coalition unable to be formed, triggers new election

Coalition is formed before 1st of January 2026

New general elections before getting a cabinet

Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister

VVD or BBB will also leave remaining coalition

PVV leader becomes Prime Minister

Schoof remains Prime Minister in new coalition

PVV will become the biggest party

VVD will pick a new party leader

PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day

VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day

Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)

Schoof will join a party before election day

Timmermans will be replaced before election day

Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns

CDA will be among the 3 biggest parties

A political candidate will be attack (fysical)

Antifa demonstrates before the election in The Hague

CDA will be among the 2 biggest parties

JA21 will be bigger than D66

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

52

45

43

35

33

4

3

3

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

309128

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

100

69

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which political parties will form the next coalition government in the Netherlands after the 2025 general elections?

Oct 30, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

196839

OptionProbability

D66

CDA

VVD

JA21

GL-PvdA

CU

Volt

PVV

50Plus

SGP

SP

BBB

PvdD

FvD

Denk

98

93

91

34

32

11

9

6

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies?

Oct 16, 12:24 PMJan 6, 2:59 AM

10980

OptionProbability

before March 2026

before March 2025

before June 2025

before September 2025

before December 2025

14

0

0

0

0

Next Dutch Government

Nov 14, 10:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12951

OptionProbability

D66 + VVD + CDA

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21

D66 + GL-PvdA + VVD + CDA

D66 + GL-PvdA + CDA

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21 + BBB

other/snap election

52

23

13

8

2

2

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY)

Apr 6, 1:18 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

4526

OptionProbability

YES

NO

116

100

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