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What Will Happen: Dutch Elections 2025

Jun 9, 7:05 PMJun 29, 10:59 PM

2710654

OptionProbability

VVD will be among the 3 biggest parties

VVD will be among the 4 biggest parties

PVV will get 29 seats or less

50Plus gets at least 1 seat

D66 will be in Top 3 Biggest Parties

At least 1 party leader resigns

D66 leader becomes Prime Minister

Housing will be the biggest topic in the campaigns

No cabinet before municipal election

VVD or BBB will also leave remaining coalition

CDA and JA21 both join the coalition

New general elections before getting a cabinet

Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister

CDA and PvdA/GL will both join coalition

Coalition is formed before 1st of January 2026

PVV leader becomes Prime Minister

Schoof remains Prime Minister in new coalition

Coalition unable to be formed, triggers new election

PvdA/GL and VVD will both join coalition

PVV will become the biggest party

VVD will pick a new party leader

PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day

VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day

Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)

Schoof will join a party before election day

Timmermans will be replaced before election day

Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns

CDA will be among the 3 biggest parties

A political candidate will be attack (fysical)

Antifa demonstrates before the election in The Hague

CDA will be among the 2 biggest parties

JA21 will be bigger than D66

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

45

7

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

309128

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

100

69

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Next Dutch Government

Nov 14, 10:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

173746

OptionProbability

D66 + VVD + CDA

D66 + GL-PvdA + VVD + CDA

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21

D66 + VVD + CDA + JA21 + BBB

D66 + GL-PvdA + CDA

other/snap election

98

1

1

0

0

0

When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies?

Oct 16, 12:24 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

101020

OptionProbability

before March 2026

before March 2025

before June 2025

before September 2025

before December 2025

5

0

0

0

0

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY)

Apr 6, 1:18 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM

4526

OptionProbability

YES

NO

116

100

Dutch 2026 local election: Which parties will outperform their 2025 general election vote share, ignoring local parties?

Jan 14, 6:45 PMMar 18, 7:30 PM

3141

OptionProbability

SGP (>2.3%)

GL-PvdA (>12.8%)

CDA (>11.8%)

CU (>1.9%)

D66 (>16.9%)

VVD (>14.2%)

SP (>1.9%)

PvdD (>2.1%)

DENK (>2.4%)

50PLUS (>1.4%)

VOLT (>1.1%)

BBB (>2.7%)

FVD (>4.5%)

JA21 (>6.0%)

PVV (>16.7%)

84

70

64

64

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

36

34

26

24

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