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Prediction markets for BBC Group

The chances of US civil war this year?

Jun 14, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.83%chance

181482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

585

17

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Which of the following Congolese cities will be controlled by the M23 group on January 1st, 2026?

Mar 12, 10:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4773

OptionProbability

Goma

Bukavu

Butembo

Kisangani

Kinshasa

52

52

41

28

6

If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

13458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

520

178

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

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