be News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.67%chance

412611081835

OptionVotes

YES

28648

16752

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

Dec 6, 1:02 PMDec 11, 7:59 AM

17972263678

OptionProbability

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Jensen Huang

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Sam Altman

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Zohran Mamdani

Benjamin Netanyahu

Xi Jinping

Gavin Newsom

Jerome Powell

Charlie Kirk

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Lee Jae Myung

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

[Any variation of "The Victims of War"]

[Any variation of "The Courts"]

[Any variation of "Trump Prosecutors"]

Vladimir Putin

Beyonce

Elon Musk

AOC

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

Mark Carney

Sanae Takaichi

Nayib Bukele

Nicolas Maduro

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.7%chance

24871933296

OptionVotes

YES

9966

2320

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.99%chance

2161715494

OptionVotes

YES

2682

1537

Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 20, 12:02 AMFeb 20, 4:59 AM

674788366

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump, Sr

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Ron Desantis

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Kristi Noem

None

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Josh Hawley

Steven Mnuchin

Brian Kemp

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

Tulsi Gabbard

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662260

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48%chance

640543230

OptionVotes

YES

15391

9326

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

44.51%chance

202331504

OptionVotes

YES

111303

89910

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.04%chance

194268635

OptionVotes

YES

5839

3348

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46%chance

232195052

OptionVotes

YES

1215

1031

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75%chance

293194677

OptionVotes

YES

2746

1002

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.66%chance

235169020

OptionProbability

YES

4766

4764

be News

Prediction markets for be

Prediction markets for be

Prediction markets for be

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2025 Person of the Year?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

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