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Prediction markets for be

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.06%chance

442912024177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30125

16229

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18302067561

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Bernie Sanders

Wes Moore

Hakeem Jeffries

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Mitch Landrieu

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

27

15

10

7

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.13%chance

2452006836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

1384

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1601087653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131912756

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Saikat Chakrabarti

Connie Chan

Other

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

London Breed

79

15

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83.57%chance

402889021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225790

44097

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.49%chance

686650747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16665

8104

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5399

4087

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244171107

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.81%chance

469128479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11212

10521

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