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Prediction markets for be

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

433011800543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26103

17825

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.57%chance

26512361424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14214

1386

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18142026882

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

Ruben Gallego

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Michelle Obama

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

28

14

10

7

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.51%chance

2422006774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3988

1361

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.61%chance

1561087545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

776

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.56%chance

351783096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217924

45700

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.76%chance

671585055

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16491

8258

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.77%chance

596581828

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3183

1507

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66%chance

342241978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2188

1234

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

243170837

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

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