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Prediction markets for be

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.87%chance

420011292111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30308

16164

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.19%chance

25582231118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10793

2069

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10%chance

2312004434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3821

1379

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

17641927480

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Mark Kelly

J.B. Pritzker

Jon Ossoff

Gretchen Whitmer

Raphael Warnock

Andy Beshear

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Kathy Hochul

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Jon Stewart

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

28

16

9

6

6

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1341061015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.64%chance

320729748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

266529

37314

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.93%chance

658577178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16062

8657

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

556502016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

493409147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

2170

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46.08%chance

242199075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

1032

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.84%chance

18789676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12039

4432

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