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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
Room temperature superconductor discovered
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
ChatGPT 7 releases
human dies on the moon
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
1500 Pokemon Released
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
Trump Dies
First Trillionaire (USD)
Human walks on moon again
Chicago ends on Broadway
1300 Pokemon Released
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Half Life 3 releases
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
One piece manga ends
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
ChatGPT 6 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
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1
OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
Pico Park 2
Viewfinder
Silksong
Baba Is You XTREME
blue prince
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
The Stanley Parable
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Stardew Valley
Splendor (tabletop game)
We Were Here Too
Advance Wars
Mini Motorways
Human: Fall Flat
Outer Wilds
Don't Starve
Doki Doki Literature Club!
We Were Here
Castle Crashers
Spiritfarer
scarlet hollow
Terraria
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
Minecraft
999
Detroit: Become Human
Wild Woods
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
Goragoa
Subnauticta
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Tokimeki Memorial
Baldur's Gate 3
Beyond: Two Souls
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
What Remains of Edith Finch
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Glider (1988)
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Bean and nothingness
Space Station 13
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Zero Time Dilemma
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
Satisfactory
Expedition 33
Quantum Conundrum
Stoneshard
Final Fantasy Tactics (original)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2
Octopath Travel
Project Triangle Strategy
Sokosoko
Physics-Breaking Boxes
Inbox Unbox
Linelith
Boxing Up Bamboo
Frog Wizard Gem Quest
The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room
Clockwork Cat
salt and sactuary
From Muddled to Clean
Path to Nowhere
Arknights
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
A Monster's Expedition
Lingo
Solas 128
Gentoo Rescue
Ugly
Toki Tori 2+
Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game
Isles of Sea and Sky
Chroma Zero
Paquerette
Riven
Baba Files Taxes
Baba Is Quiz
A Solitaire Mystery
IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME
Leaf's Odyssey
Submachine
LOK Digital
Leap Year
Recursed
Fever Meme
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Moonlighter
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
PEAK
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Arc Raiders
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Magicka
Exploding kittens
Yume Nikki
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Timberborn
Trine 2
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Children of Morta
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
Fez
CrossCode
Cocoon
Islands of Insight
Monopoly
USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Wingspan
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Teardown
Astroneer
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OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Straight
Under 60 yo
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Speaks a foreign language
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
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OptionProbability
Wireless
Eye tracking
Prescription lenses
Body tracking (no separate device)
Body tracking (sold with device)
Face tracking
Knuckle controllers
Base stations
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100
82
38
20
8
0
0
OptionProbability
Has eye tracking
Has Mac Virtual Display functionality
Has external battery
Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.
Has built in speakers for audio
Will have a glass front
Sells more than 1 million units in its first year
Priced under $2,000
Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated
Has "Air" in its name
Primarily made of aluminum
Has an external display (like eyesight)
Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook
Priced under $1000
Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).
Priced lower than $199
Priced lower than $299
In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025
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4
OptionProbability
Released by 2026-12-31
OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model
Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)
Face capture cameras on all new models
Weigh less than quest 3
Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model
Will come in multiple color options
Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000
Option to buy without controllers
Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450
Hands as Controllers
Varifocal displays
Released by 2025-12-31
External front-facing display
Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro
Released by 2024-12-31
85
77
67
67
60
47
43
42
42
38
34
29
12
10
10
2
OptionProbability
Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable
Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"
Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief
Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian
Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth
Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030
Catnee is an Oligarch IRL
Catnee likes to go hiking
Catnee will not trade on this market
91
85
73
50
45
19
16
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
"There are still direwolves beyond the Wall. We hear them on our rangings." (Jon I)
"We should start back." (Prologue)
"I just want to stand on top of the Wall and piss off the edge of the world." (Tyrion I)
"When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives." (Arya II)
"I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world." (Tyrion III)
"And what will you be wanting, this time of night?” “A last look.” (Tyrion III)
"All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." (Jon I)
"Love is the bane of honor, the death of duty." (Jon VIII)
"All dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes." (Jon I)
"I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say." (Tyrion I)
33
14
10
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Recording exists of them saying "fuck"
Has Tattoo
Photo exists on internet of them wearing suspenders/overalls
photo of them in suspenders/overalls on the internet
Had At least one sex scandal
Has Brown Eyes
Is 6'0" or taller (183cm)
at least one divorce at time of announcement
Currently Married
Is Bald
60 or older at time of announcement
Is Indian
at least one arrest
79
76
66
59
50
50
34
34
13
10
10
4
4
OptionProbability
Ball to the wall riots, in Caracas, and other cities, the full 10 yards with burning tires etc.
at least 10 persons is killed due to police violence
A massive police/millitary crackdown on said riots
at least 50 persons is arrested due to demonstrations
at least 50 persons is arrested due to her return...
Imprisonment
She disapears from the public eye ...
Executión (LEO)
Assassination attempt
51
41
34
34
34
21
20
17
12
OptionProbability
Other
Fingers
Eyes
Nose
Ears
Heart
52
22
19
3
2
2