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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Yudkowsky Attends
Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing
Aella Attends
Mana is exchanged for goods
Mana is exchanged for services
There will be more than one reporter
Someone attends in a partial fursuit
Smores are consumed
Someone wears a suit and tie
There are at least five people talking after 5am
Trump golfs the weekend of the conference
Barak sells/offers something at night market
Standard (not RPS) poker tournament
Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it
Someone cries
>4 people group hug
10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend
Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference
Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people
Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat
cuddle puddle of >5
Someone gets banned from manifest
More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance
Someone gets a job offer at the conference
Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it
All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues
Attendance is higher than last year
There is a Karaoke Event
There will be a marshmallow fight
Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference
Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead
@Zoli hosts a wrestling event
A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial
A billionaire shows up
one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs
Someone breakdances competently
Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge
A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity
Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens
someone gets convinced to start writing on substack
Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market
7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin
there will be someone with a friend AI necklace
Malcolm Collins attends
Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10
10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)
Someone writes a hit piece
Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market
Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference
Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend
Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo
RPS Poker Tournament
BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference
There is a Costume Contest
CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)
Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky
At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.
There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023
Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow
Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)
Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass
There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher
Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)
Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)
@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is
Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50
Someone attends in a full fursuit
Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be
There is an orgy
An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing
Someone breaks an arm
Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise
Runs out of Huel/Soylent
A pope attends
There is more than one orgy
There will be a Worldcoin Orb
Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row
Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market
Polymarket creates a market related to manifest
Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit
The conference is cancelled
A >1m tall humanoid robot is present and walks around
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OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
Room temperature superconductor discovered
UK has a queen again
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
Olympics hosted in Japan again
RSA-2048 cracked
ChatGPT 10 releases
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
human dies on the moon
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
Olympics hosted in Africa
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Windows 11 end support date
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
1500 Pokemon Released
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
ChatGPT 7 releases
Chicago ends on Broadway
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Another MLB perfect game pitched
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
1300 Pokemon Released
Trump Dies
Human walks on moon again
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Half Life 3 releases
a USA president impeached again
One piece manga ends
Skibidi Toilet ends
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
ChatGPT 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
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OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
blue prince
Pico Park 2
Viewfinder
Silksong
Baba Is You XTREME
Papers Please
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
The Stanley Parable
Noita
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Outer Wilds
We Were Here Too
Mini Motorways
Don't Starve
We Were Here
scarlet hollow
Terraria
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
Minecraft
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
Goragoa
Subnauticta
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Baldur's Gate 3
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Bean and nothingness
Space Station 13
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
Satisfactory
Expedition 33
Quantum Conundrum
Stoneshard
Final Fantasy Tactics (original)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2
Octopath Travel
Project Triangle Strategy
Sokosoko
Physics-Breaking Boxes
Inbox Unbox
Linelith
Boxing Up Bamboo
Frog Wizard Gem Quest
The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room
Clockwork Cat
salt and sactuary
From Muddled to Clean
Path to Nowhere
Arknights
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
A Monster's Expedition
Lingo
Solas 128
Gentoo Rescue
Ugly
Toki Tori 2+
Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game
Isles of Sea and Sky
Chroma Zero
Paquerette
Riven
Baba Files Taxes
Baba Is Quiz
A Solitaire Mystery
IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME
Leaf's Odyssey
Submachine
LOK Digital
Leap Year
Recursed
Fever Meme
Passant: A Chess Roguelike
tetr.io (quickplay duos)
Taiji
Crawl
Corekeeper
Emberknights
Sworn
Jumpspace
Gloomhaven
Mountain Peak
A Way Out
The Past Within
How 2 Escape
All You Need is Help
Melbits World
Parallel Experiment
Superbugs: Awaken
Tick Tock: A Tale for Two
Tristoy
Unboxing the Cryptic Killer
Tetris Effect
Pushmo
World of Goo
The Swapper
Papers, Please
The Séance of Blake Manor
Fugitive (board/card game)
Codenames Duet (card game)
Pandemic (boardgame)
Fugitive (board/card game)
Nine Sols
Sineus Arena
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Moonlighter
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
PEAK
Exploding kittens
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Arc Raiders
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Magicka
Yume Nikki
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Timberborn
Trine 2
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Children of Morta
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
Fez
CrossCode
Cocoon
Islands of Insight
Monopoly
USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Beyond: Two Souls
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Spiritfarer
Wingspan
Stardew Valley
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Splendor (tabletop game)
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Glider (1988)
Teardown
Human: Fall Flat
Castle Crashers
Tokimeki Memorial
999
Detroit: Become Human
Zero Time Dilemma
Astroneer
Wild Woods
What Remains of Edith Finch
Advance Wars
Doki Doki Literature Club!
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Under 60 yo
Straight
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Speaks a foreign language
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
97
90
89
85
84
84
83
82
69
68
67
65
65
62
62
61
58
57
56
55
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
40
40
38
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
10
9
8
7
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Wireless
Eye tracking
Prescription lenses
Body tracking (no separate device)
Body tracking (sold with device)
Face tracking
Knuckle controllers
Base stations
100
100
82
38
20
8
0
0
OptionProbability
Has eye tracking
Has Mac Virtual Display functionality
Has external battery
Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.
Has built in speakers for audio
Will have a glass front
Sells more than 1 million units in its first year
Priced under $2,000
Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated
Has "Air" in its name
Primarily made of aluminum
Has an external display (like eyesight)
Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook
Priced under $1000
Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).
Priced lower than $199
Priced lower than $299
In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025
95
89
87
72
72
66
50
50
50
49
48
38
19
18
13
7
5
4
OptionProbability
Project Hail Mary
Neuromancer
Hyperion
Mistborn
Children of Blood and Bone
The Way of Kings
Fourth Wing
The Player of Games
A Court of Thorns and Roses
The Wind Singer
Old Man's War
The Lies of Locke Lamora
The Amulet of Samarkand
Consider Phlebas
Revelation Space
The Final Empire
The Blade Itself
Assassin's Apprentice
A Fire Upon the Deep
Piranesi
Ancillary Justice
The Mote in God's Eye
A Deepness in the Sky
Permutation City
Shards of Honor
The Left Hand of Darkness
The Forever War
Blindsight
Use of Weapons
Consider Phlebas
The Name of the Wind
Stranger in a Strange Land
The Shadow of the Torturer
The Diamond Age
Kushiel's Dart
We Are Legion
The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect
Rant: The Oral Biography of Buster Casey
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
99
76
74
65
64
61
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
45
43
41
41
41
37
36
35
34
30
28
28
27
25
25
25
22
21
21
20
16
15
13
10
10
4
OptionProbability
Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable
Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"
Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief
Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian
Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth
Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030
Catnee is an Oligarch IRL
Catnee likes to go hiking
Catnee will not trade on this market
91
85
73
50
45
19
16
0
0
OptionProbability
Front-facing portrait, plaid shirt
Side profile, plaid shirt
Outdoor sweater photo
Timothee Chalamet pool scene, CMBYN
Jini Jane from Kiirac
Curtis Yarvin hand, painting gifted by Thiel
Mensch, large-eyed child painting
Young Robin Hanson
Young Robin Hanson FaceApped as a woman
Munch self-portrait
Toni Hanna album cover
Side profile, plaid shirt, closed mouth
Current pfp, white shirt
73
72
70
61
54
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
46
OptionProbability
“Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)
“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)
“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)
“Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)
“In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)
“Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)
24
18
17
16
15
10
OptionProbability
Will I get 20/15 vision or better?
Will I want to wear fake/blank glasses for aesthetics at any point?
Will I have worse-than-baseline dry eye 1 year later?
Will I need revision/enhancement?
Will I regret the procedure?
66
45
34
34
17