OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
USA adds 52nd state
Room temperature superconductor discovered
UK has a queen again
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
Olympics hosted in Japan again
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Batman enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
human dies on the moon
African company or country lands on moon
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
Olympics hosted in Africa
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
Pickleball in the Olympics
End support date for Windows 12
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO (after 2026)
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
USA Adds 51st state
ChatGPT 10 releases
Superman enters the public domain
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Blood Meridian movie release
Destiny retires from regular streaming
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Windows 11 end support date
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
The first $10T market cap company
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
1500 Pokemon Released
Civilization 8 releases
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
South Park ends
Chicago ends on Broadway
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
Xi no longer in power in China
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Simpsons ends
Iceland Bans Whaling
Another MLB perfect game pitched
1300 Pokemon Released
Sagrada Familia Church completed
One piece manga ends
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Human walks on moon again
Trump Dies
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Half Life 3 releases
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Skibidi Toilet ends
a third Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
ChatGPT 7 releases
a USA president impeached again
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Shrek 5 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
ChatGPT 6 releases
First Trillionaire (USD)
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
The first $5T market cap company
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
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OptionProbability
Fingerprint
Harp
Trombone
Shovel
Splatter
Leafless Tree
Face with Bags Under Eyes
Root Vegetable
Lighthouse
Ballet shoes
stained glass window
Origami/Paper Crane
Triceratops
Candy Cane
Chainsaw
Vulture
Bowl of Blended Soup / Smooth Soup (NOT POT OF FOOD or RAMEN)
Gull
Pepper shaker
Gnome
Tumbleweed
Seahorse
Mime
cotton candy
Hot Air Balloon
Armadillo
Toucan
Food Cart
Seatbelt
Windmill
(Jumping) Heel Click
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100
100
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OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Under 60 yo
Straight
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Speaks a foreign language
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
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OptionProbability
Has eye tracking
Has Mac Virtual Display functionality
Has external battery
Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.
Has built in speakers for audio
Will have a glass front
Sells more than 1 million units in its first year
Priced under $2,000
Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated
Has "Air" in its name
Primarily made of aluminum
Has an external display (like eyesight)
Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook
Priced under $1000
Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).
Priced lower than $199
Priced lower than $299
In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025
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OptionProbability
Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable
Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"
Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief
Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian
Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth
Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030
Catnee is an Oligarch IRL
Catnee likes to go hiking
Catnee will not trade on this market
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OptionProbability
Chronic venous insufficiency
Bruising on hands from illness
Obesity/Overweight
Elevated cholesterol
Dementia
Ischemic stroke
Tonsil stones (tonsilloliths)
Diverticulosis
Benign polyp
Shingles
Sleep apnea
Deep vein thrombosis
Arterial disease
Cataract (surgery)
Hearing loss
COVID-19
Losing eye sight
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OptionProbability
No Alien official confirmed on Earth until 2050
Unknown to the human eye / Other
Green or Yellow
Blue or Purple or Red
Black or White
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OptionProbability
Front-facing portrait, plaid shirt
Side profile, plaid shirt
Outdoor sweater photo
Timothee Chalamet pool scene, CMBYN
Jini Jane from Kiirac
Curtis Yarvin hand, painting gifted by Thiel
Mensch, large-eyed child painting
Young Robin Hanson
Young Robin Hanson FaceApped as a woman
Munch self-portrait
Toni Hanna album cover
Side profile, plaid shirt, closed mouth
Current pfp, white shirt
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OptionProbability
Will I get 20/15 vision or better?
Will I want to wear fake/blank glasses for aesthetics at any point?
Will I need revision/enhancement?
Will I regret the procedure?
Will I have worse-than-baseline dry eye 1 year later?
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OptionProbability
0
1
2
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OptionProbability
Black Jacks
Bumblebees
Crazy Cat's Eyes
Green Ducks
Guild of Mages
Hazers
Indigo Stars
Jungle Jumpers
Kobalts
Mellow Yellow
Midnight Wisps
O'rangers
Oceanics
Pinkies
Raspberry Racers
Rojo Rollers
Savage Speeders
Snowballs
Team Galactic
Turtle Sliders
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