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BEA News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

42.92%chance

21801949613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5004

3766

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

139406235

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced before 2027

GPT-6

Gemini 4

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

OpenAI o4

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

GPT-5.6

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GLM-5.2

87

85

85

83

80

80

74

73

71

65

57

56

48

44

37

22

21

21

15

13

13

13

10

9

8

5

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

10

7

5

2

1

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114660

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

35

27

10

7

6

5

4

4

1

1

0

0

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

35.86%chance

8033375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

569

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31489

3182

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

3610912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

659608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11983

8345

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.06%chance

215232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

May 17, 3:23 AMJul 19, 2:59 PM

50.3%chance

4317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10060

9941

How long to beat GTA VI (Main + Extra) on HowLongToBeat, as of end of 2026?

Jun 24, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more

N/A — no qualifying value (see rules)

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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