DeepNewz, mobile.

People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story list view.

BEA News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21091878007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4796

3929

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

8

7

5

4

1

0

0

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120324346

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Gemini 4

GPT-6

Any model announced before 2027

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

OpenAI o4

GPT-5.5

DeepSeek-V4

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

90

88

86

85

81

81

80

73

73

72

65

60

58

56

54

27

24

23

14

13

13

13

13

12

10

10

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

16298885

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,450 - 1,599

2,050 - 2,199

1,300 - 1,449

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,150 - 1,299

1,000 - 1,149

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

39

27

15

7

5

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

14950686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

718

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

44.86%chance

7733207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

707

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.04%chance

1723720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29965

3343

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.54%chance

8514858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.21%chance

3310730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.77%chance

174855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

620

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

959

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

Dec 6, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

101559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

Latest stories