DeepNewz, mobile.

People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story list view.

BEA News

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40.59%chance

21661928627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5249

3590

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

135380527

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Gemini 4

GPT-6

Any model announced before 2027

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

OpenAI o4

Gemini 3.5

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.6

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.8

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Opus 4.7

87

86

85

84

80

80

76

73

71

65

57

56

48

46

37

27

21

19

18

13

13

13

10

9

9

5

4

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

10

7

5

2

1

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114509

OptionProbability

1,600 - 1,749

1,750 - 1,899

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

33

27

11

9

6

4

3

3

1

1

0

0

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.79%chance

15151898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1574

636

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

43.1%chance

8033265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1237

678

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.17%chance

1826370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31493

3181

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.21%chance

3310730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

683

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.52%chance

639493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11868

8426

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

205182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

547

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 7 minutes before 2028?

Dec 6, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.27%chance

112236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2556

391

Latest stories