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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.84%chance

22502116876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5192

3628

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

180540238

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

GPT-6.5

Any model announced before 2027

Claude 3.5 Opus

OpenAI o4

Fable/Mythos 5.5

Grok 5

Claude Opus 4.9

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

DeepSeek-V4

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

Any Claude 5 model

grok-4

GPT-6

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Gemini 3.5

Gemini 4

Claude 4.5 Opus

Claude 5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

GPT-5.5

Muse Spark (from Meta)

Any Claude Mythos model (first version released)

Opus 4.7

Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6

GLM-5.2

OpenAI Astra (first model released)

90

88

88

87

85

85

84

83

82

80

79

78

69

65

47

32

25

13

10

10

9

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

173115651

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

35

24

10

7

7

5

4

4

2

2

0

0

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2028?

Aug 26, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.17%chance

18363262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

560

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.07%chance

9050238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

34067

2935

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

8.47%chance

1949448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32903

3045

Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?

Jun 28, 2:39 AMOct 28, 11:33 AM

33.97%chance

8033425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

542

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.78%chance

9516056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1722

581

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4112058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

235711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

592

What happens first: AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes or All Millennium Prize Problems Solved?

Oct 17, 10:05 PMOct 17, 10:04 PM

193142

OptionProbability

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes

All Millennium Prize Problems Solved

82

18

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