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Prediction markets for Beats

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.64%chance

18381290456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4763

3950

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369428

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68142589

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced before 2028

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2027

Grok 5

Any Claude 5 model

Gemini 3

OpenAI o4

Any model announced before 2026

GPT-5

DeepSeek-V4

Claude 3.5 Opus

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

85

82

80

77

62

41

36

35

29

25

23

17

13

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35%chance

9025799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8215169

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

49

30

20

1

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will China beat the USA to Mars?

Feb 22, 8:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

30%chance

6811427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

979

975

Will Elon Musk beat Mark Zuckerberg if they fight in a cage match?

Jun 22, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.75%chance

809862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

1425

Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

628815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

341

Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028?

Jun 19, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

154073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

121672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

970

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

52.67%chance

261277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

424

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