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BELIEVE News

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

66140982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

69999

1429

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1100

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.18%chance

11414373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

1804

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.38%chance

6610114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2385

878

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

31.55%chance

303232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

679

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

815

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.12%chance

491707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

874

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

21964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

1249

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

In 2030, will we still believe economies should mature into becoming service-based? [vibes]

Feb 20, 11:07 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

66.8%chance

13252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

960

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7270

7055

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.47%chance

15162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

966

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