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Prediction markets for BELIEVE

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1.16%chance

16583111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38546

1271

Will I believe 2025 is a bigger news year than 2024?

Jan 4, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.13%chance

8267259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17418

4334

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

1027

Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

4639822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29334

3409

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.48%chance

11314363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1817

1806

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?

Dec 21, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.88%chance

766325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3054

1067

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.91%chance

461643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

852

More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 8:36 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

35%chance

221572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Nov 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

72.73%chance

401386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

945

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.37%chance

21964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1669

1249

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

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