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Bench News

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

229346

OptionProbability

X = 5

X = 10

X = 15

X = 20

X = 30

X = 60

X = 70

X = 50

X = 65

X = 75

X = 80

X = 40

X = 85

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

98

98

98

98

97

94

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Top SWE-Bench Pro score by Jan 1, 2027?

Oct 21, 4:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

153226

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89%

70 - 79%

50 - 59%

60 - 69%

40 - 49%

44

39

10

3

3

2

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Oct 12, 6:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

41.43%chance

443112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

841

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24931

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

65

22

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

will kevin zhang be able to bench 135 by the end of summer

Apr 3, 7:57 PMSep 21, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

8387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will Jayden get benched more than 9 games

Jan 19, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.13%chance

2330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

23

When will there be three fully complete environments in Linux Bench?

Aug 15, 7:45 PMAug 22, 7:42 PM

2285

OptionProbability

October 2025

September 2025

August 2025

46

34

20

will the raw bench press world record be 800 lbs or more at the end of 2029?

Feb 28, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83%chance

4174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

45

What will be the highest score on the SWE-bench pro private set before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:06 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

2135

OptionProbability

71 - 82%

83 - 94%

59 - 70%

23 - 34%

35 - 46%

47 - 58%

95 - 100%

Below 23%

27

21

17

8

8

8

8

3

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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