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Prediction markets for Bench

Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?

Jul 22, 1:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

497877

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

John Roberts

Sonia Sotomayor

Elena Kagan

Niel Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

60

23

6

4

1

1

1

1

1

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Oct 12, 6:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

41.43%chance

443112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

841

Will Hank bench 225 this year?

Feb 6, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

81138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24941

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

67

21

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will Jayden get benched more than 9 games

Jan 19, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.13%chance

2330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

23

In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench?

Dec 2, 9:58 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9327

OptionProbability

2026-

2027

2028

2031+

2029

2030

26

25

20

17

7

5

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?

Feb 8, 10:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.49%chance

7308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

393

62

will the raw bench press world record be 800 lbs or more at the end of 2029?

Feb 28, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83%chance

4174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

45

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?

Feb 8, 10:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.89%chance

4132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

218

42

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

Jul 16, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

292

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

83

76

74

66

60

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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