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Bench News

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

229346

OptionProbability

X = 5

X = 10

X = 15

X = 20

X = 30

X = 60

X = 70

X = 50

X = 65

X = 75

X = 80

X = 40

X = 85

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

98

98

98

98

97

94

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?

Jan 15, 4:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

268926

OptionProbability

X = 2

X = 4

X = 8

X = 16

X = 32

X = 60

X = 40

X = 50

X = 75

X = 85

X = 70

X = 90

X = 80

X = 95

100

100

100

100

100

97

95

95

95

95

94

94

93

73

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Oct 12, 6:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

41.82%chance

493825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

848

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93651

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

94

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24941

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

67

21

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

When will SWE-bench be solved?

Aug 14, 3:18 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

11857

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2024

later

85

4

3

3

3

2

1

Will Jayden get benched more than 9 games

Jan 19, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.13%chance

2330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

23

In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench?

Dec 2, 9:58 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9327

OptionProbability

2026-

2027

2028

2031+

2029

2030

26

25

20

17

7

5

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?

Feb 8, 10:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.49%chance

7308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

393

62

What will be the highest score on the SWE-bench pro private set before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:06 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

3228

OptionProbability

95 - 100%

83 - 94%

23 - 34%

35 - 46%

47 - 58%

59 - 70%

71 - 82%

Below 23%

42

33

5

5

5

5

5

2

will the raw bench press world record be 800 lbs or more at the end of 2029?

Feb 28, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83%chance

4174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

221

45

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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