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Prediction markets for BERT

Will Noam Chomsky live longer than Bertrand Russell? (Russell died at 98)

Apr 20, 11:11 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

27.77%chance

2011074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

946

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.41%chance

443597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

498

Will Thierry Baudet convert to Islam before the end of 2025?

Jun 10, 10:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.02%chance

81008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

10

Which comedian will live the longest?

Jun 6, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

224

OptionProbability

Dave Attell

Doug Stanhope

Bert Kreischer

54

23

23

Bert Vogelstein wins Nobel by end 2030

Oct 3, 11:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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