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Prediction markets for BERT

Will Noam Chomsky live longer than Bertrand Russell? (Russell died at 98)

Apr 20, 11:11 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

35.07%chance

2011289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

876

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

453647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

548

Which comedian will live the longest?

Jun 6, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

326

OptionProbability

Dave Attell

Doug Stanhope

Bert Kreischer

53

24

24

Bert Vogelstein wins Nobel by end 2030

Oct 3, 11:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.81%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

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