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Prediction markets for BES

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.38%chance

87210076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51480

2720

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3035831

OptionProbability

60-70%

70-80%

50-60%

80-90%

40-50%

30-40%

≥90%

<30%

26

25

19

11

9

4

4

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2218434

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

24

20

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.88%chance

18513568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2675

2371

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1713464

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

20

17

16

12

10

7

6

6

3

2

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1312420

OptionProbability

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

40-50%

80-90%

≥90%

30-40%

<30%

22

21

18

12

12

8

5

2

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Jan 6, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

116930

OptionProbability

90-100%

80-90%

100-110%

70-80%

60-70%

50-60%

110-120%

>120%

30-40%

40-50%

<20%

20-30%

28

20

16

9

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

602925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

880

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.01%chance

411153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

930

What will Tetra's best 10K time be by the end of 2026?

Mar 25, 3:35 AMMar 25, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 48

48 - 54

55 - 61

62 - 68

69 - 75

76 - 85

Above 85

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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