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Prediction markets for BES

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.84%chance

87213855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48701

2854

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.43%chance

19078574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3232

1069

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1738218

OptionProbability

70-80%

80-90%

60-70%

≥90%

50-60%

40-50%

<30%

30-40%

36

28

14

10

6

4

1

1

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3134079

OptionProbability

40-50%

30-40%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

10-20%

70-80%

≥80%

<10%

26

24

18

12

6

4

4

3

2

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3128952

OptionProbability

<10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

72

8

5

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3617

1599

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.39%chance

354475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

527

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.68%chance

613182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

589

Will the Oscars Best Picture winner for 2027 pass the Bechdel Test? (awarded in 2028)

Dec 29, 6:46 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

54.73%chance

301932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2090

1821

In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world

Jan 28, 2:49 AMJan 28, 5:59 AM

40%chance

271842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

606

Trump suggests he is or would be a good/the best dictator

Sep 22, 7:43 AMDec 31, 8:39 AM

51.49%chance

171372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

421303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

930

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