BET News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

92.39%chance

9118702867

OptionVotes

YES

17234

8938

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

YES

2722

2606

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

10838

9495

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752333

OptionVotes

YES

3139

336

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.03%chance

10148855

OptionVotes

YES

5915

4920

Trump & Mamdani Meeting Prop Bets

Nov 20, 3:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17437476

OptionProbability

Trump at least briefly appears to have a change of heart on Mamdani, his ideology or his policies

Trump does nothing to spite Mamdani

Trump and Mamdani shake hands during the meeting?

Trump compliments Mamdani

Israel is mentioned

Anti-semitism is mentioned

Trump says “affordability” during meeting

Trump deploys ICE in NYC

Trump refuses to grant Mamdani a security clearance

Trump pauses all federal funding to NYC

Trump will blow Mamdani

Trump says Kwame during meeting?

Trump gets Excited about Buses

Jd Vance is at the meeting

Trump mispronounces Mamdani's name

Marco Rubio is at the meeting

Mamdani compliments Trump

Trump says “communist” or “communism”

Mamdani compliments Trump?

100

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1924493

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

It will have four playable characters on release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.72%chance

1013943

OptionVotes

YES

15823

6827

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

1%chance

387936

OptionVotes

YES

2753

1145

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25%chance

312946

OptionVotes

YES

3295

2155

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

499

284

BET News

Prediction markets for BET

Prediction markets for BET

Prediction markets for BET

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Trump & Mamdani Meeting Prop Bets

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

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