BET News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

95%chance

9869796895

OptionVotes

YES

25393

8410

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

2787

2288

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

210354333

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

Other

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

48120535

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

It will be released first in 2025

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

It will have four playable characters on release

100

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.89%chance

11979293

OptionVotes

YES

5951

4909

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

2766

372

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

63.7%chance

18840932

OptionVotes

YES

1325

755

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.13%chance

1214199

OptionVotes

YES

16073

6733

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311791

OptionVotes

YES

1000

937

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Nov 29, 7:19 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

0.88%chance

418663

OptionVotes

YES

3121

1142

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

4041

1942

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

499

284

BET News

Prediction markets for BET

Prediction markets for BET

Prediction markets for BET

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

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