BET Media Group News

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

1669

599

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

115646

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

YES

1066

868

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.44%chance

632377

OptionVotes

YES

1430

643

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

2046

896

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Dec 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12316

OptionProbability

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

2024, 2025

Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?

Jun 19, 4:45 AMJun 18, 11:59 PM

13.83%chance

10229

OptionVotes

YES

250

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

Nov 17, 12:51 PMJan 25, 6:59 AM

52.16%chance

10196

OptionVotes

YES

104

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

BET Media Group News

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

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