BET Media Group News

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

206046

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

984

961

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

YES

1476

649

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

2046

896

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Dec 16, 5:17 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

12316

OptionProbability

Later than 2037, if ever

Other

2026, 2027

2028, 2029

2024, 2025

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

Nov 17, 12:51 PMJan 25, 6:59 AM

54.1%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

109

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

BET Media Group News

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Prediction markets for BET Media Group

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

When AI girlfriends will become socially acceptable to at least one age group?

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

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