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Prediction markets for Betterment

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

406221027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

620

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3175201

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

27

25

25

19

1

1

1

1

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.83%chance

21262021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

862

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

53.75%chance

141099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

931

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

44%chance

9898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

How comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?

May 25, 7:46 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

38.62%chance

6573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

793

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.22%chance

6472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

796

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will I conclude, at the end of 2026, that this year has been better than 2025?

Dec 31, 10:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.88%chance

7252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

872

Will Verda make better needles for the 2028 election?

Nov 6, 8:35 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

42.96%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

868

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