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Prediction markets for Betterment

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

351180626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

783

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 7:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.61%chance

20659751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

1037

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Jan 4, 3:48 PMFeb 28, 3:48 PM

39.77%chance

417975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

813

Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?

Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM

34.85%chance

246277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13672

7314

Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 5 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?

Feb 2, 4:11 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

70.29%chance

352747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

997

Is it better for battery health to charge new M1 Macbooks via Magsafe rather than USB-C?

May 19, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.07%chance

211238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

1353

Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?

Jan 6, 7:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

9763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

Will I conclude, at the end of 2026, that this year has been better than 2025?

Dec 31, 10:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.58%chance

6222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

895

Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031

Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

54%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.89%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

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