OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
Andrew Tate
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Cersei Lannister
Dylan Klebold
Trump's attempted assassin
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Josh Hawley
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Roko
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Sima Zhong
LEROY JENKINS
CHELSEA VOSS
Laria Reynolds
Ornlu the Wolf
Jozef Tiso
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
A cockroach
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
Niko Bellic
Hunter Biden's laptop
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Commodus
Paul Von Hindenburg
Tito
Thomas Midgley Jr.
an asi agent from openai
Vriska Serket
Yuan Shu
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Mehmed V
Black Hat (XKCD)
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
King George III of England
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
Klaus Schwab
Karl Marx
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
A literal ham sandwich
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Rochelle Shen
JD Vance
Emperor Ling of Han
Ada Nguyen
Sean Hannity
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Salvador Allende
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
Eren Yeager
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Rorschach
Wario
goth600
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Lex Luthor
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
Neville Chamberlain
Bad Bunny
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Stan Smith
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Santa Claus
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Justin Trudeau
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
@strutheo :)
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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100
100
100
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100
100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
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96
94
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92
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91
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88
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86
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84
84
82
81
76
74
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73
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71
69
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63
61
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58
58
55
55
50
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50
50
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50
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50
47
46
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6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
35720
1481
OptionProbability
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
pass 500 or more executive orders
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Stays alive
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Pardon himself
File lawsuit against a congressperson
have a journalist arrested
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
new blockade of a country
Prosecute someone for flag burning
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
resume buying oil from Russia
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
call someone retarded through text or speech
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Dep
Nominate a family member to high office
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
put his name on a ship in the navy
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
ten or more protestors killed during term
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Causes Tina Peters' early release
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Pardon p diddy
Add a citizenship question to the census
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
take state ownership in an airline
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
take control of a part of ukraine
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
Replace his Vice President
stops all sanctions on Russia
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
force a former president to testify before Congress
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
expand the borders of the usa
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal Obamacare
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
actually disinter bodies from another country
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
orders arrests of any Biden family member
repeal an amendment
Enact price controls on groceries
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
host putin at mar a lago
make statements that are negative about labubu
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
take control of a part of greenland
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
ends black history month
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
Causes derek chauvin's early release
fully nationalize an airline
Says 6 7 (or variant)
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
pardon derek chauvin
Raise the retirement age for social security
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Salute Putin
Withdraw from NATO
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Call for the end of child marriage
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
Annex any part of Mexico
change the borders of a state
add a new state
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Call for the end of the Senate
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
fauci in jail at least one week
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
ban trans people from holding federal offices
Implement a federal abortion ban
bans anime
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Wearing a white dress after labor day
bans 6 7
pardon george santos
100
99
95
94
88
88
86
85
82
82
81
81
77
77
75
74
74
74
74
73
72
71
71
68
67
67
66
65
65
64
63
63
62
60
60
59
58
55
54
52
51
51
50
50
49
47
47
47
47
46
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
37
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
32
31
31
30
29
29
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
416
153
OptionProbability
A Storm with Thunder, Lightning, and Hail (and optionally, Fire)
Swarm of Locusts (or Cicadas)
Infestation of Lice (or Bedbugs)
Infestation of (Flies / Wild Animals)
3 days of Darkness (or Wildfire smog or power Blackout)
Pestilence of Livestock
Outbreak of Boils
Water turning into blood (or Red Tide)
Swarm of Frogs
Death of firstborns (see rules)
92
91
70
50
20
18
15
10
6
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
875
123
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1785
907
OptionProbability
2026
2025
2027
2028
2029
33
23
17
14
14
OptionVotes
YES
NO
112
89
OptionVotes
YES
NO
111
90
OptionProbability
Other
Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)
Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)
Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)
Ezekiel 38-39 War (Gog and Magog invasion of Israel)
Rise of a One-World Government (Revelation 13)
Mark of the Beast (Revelation 13:16-18)
Increase in Natural Disasters (Luke 21:11)
Jewish Return to Israel (Ezekiel 36-37)
Rise of Anti-Semitism (Zechariah 12:2-3)
Increase in Knowledge and Travel (Daniel 12:4)
Apostasy and Falling Away from Faith (2 Timothy 3:1-5)
Peace Treaty with Israel (Daniel 9:27)
Euphrates River Drying Up (Revelation 16:12)
Signs in the Sun, Moon, and Stars (Luke 21:25)
Rise of False Prophets (Matthew 24:11)
All of the above
14
12
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Vague
Believes the election was rigged like Trump
Believes the election was fair (about as fair as other US elections)
38
35
27

