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Top stories

Schumer, Jeffries Urge Budget Talks as Sept. 30 Shutdown Deadline Nears

US Domestic Policy

Schumer, Jeffries Urge Budget Talks as Sept. 30 Shutdown Deadline Nears

Authors

19

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Big Four

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

152009

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

44

30

27

26

26

26

26

23

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will POWDR announce the sale of a ski area to Vail, Alterra, Mountain Capital Partners, or Boyne by summer 2026?

Aug 23, 2:42 AMSep 27, 3:59 AM

3.33%chance

51062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539

19

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Dec 24, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.23%chance

19795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

388

120

Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?

Mar 26, 2:31 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

11323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Who will be the first QB from the 2024 Draft Class to win league MVP?

Feb 16, 7:22 AMFeb 17, 11:59 PM

11156

OptionProbability

Caleb Williams

Bo Nix

Drake Maye

Jayden Daniels

None before 2035

Other

33

26

19

9

6

6

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

44

23

10

8

7

4

3

Will at least 2 Big 12 teams make the 2026-2027 College Football Playoff

Sep 20, 3:44 PMDec 6, 11:59 PM

39.87%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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