Big Fund News

Will NASA's SLS be cancelled before 2026?

Nov 14, 2:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.56%chance

3011267

OptionVotes

YES

6168

162

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

173443

OptionVotes

YES

4220

237

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

Jan 4, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

162174

OptionProbability

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabalistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2027

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2026

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >50% but <90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <50% but >10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2025

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM

161278

OptionProbability

Geopolitics

Technology

Medical/Healthcare

Economy

Fundamental research

Space Exploration

Environment and sustainability

Art and culture

Human Rights

Society

Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.05%chance

181114

OptionVotes

YES

378

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Jun 9, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.18%chance

566

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Jun 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.51%chance

444

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

YES

223

191

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

102

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

Big Fund News

Prediction markets for Big Fund

Prediction markets for Big Fund

Prediction markets for Big Fund

Will NASA's SLS be cancelled before 2026?

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

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