Big Fund News

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.6%chance

592297

OptionVotes

YES

116

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

Jan 4, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

162184

OptionProbability

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabalistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2027

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >50% but <90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <50% but >10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2025

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2026

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Jan 8, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.75%chance

191124

OptionVotes

YES

388

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Jun 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2045?

Jun 9, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

444

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

YES

223

191

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

100

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

Big Fund News

Prediction markets for Big Fund

Prediction markets for Big Fund

Prediction markets for Big Fund

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2040?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2045?

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

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