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Prediction markets for Big Law

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2025?

Nov 2, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.26%chance

151230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

When will we know the nature of dark matter?

May 12, 10:16 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29600

OptionProbability

Before 2052

Before 2048

Before 2044

Before 2040

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

59

46

40

33

27

16

10

Will Mary Peltola run for US Senate in 2026?

Dec 9, 1:28 AMMay 1, 10:59 PM

56.94%chance

4472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

Can negative mass exist?

Dec 2, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

94

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

US ends citizenship-based taxation by 2030?

Nov 2, 12:56 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.03%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

143

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