Big Law News

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

2783

1747

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

YES

1117

894

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

YES

1838

546

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

65.25%chance

6583

OptionVotes

YES

1370

730

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

37%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

1305

766

Can negative mass exist?

Dec 2, 10:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

300

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Sep 25, 9:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

8153

OptionVotes

YES

123

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

184

Big Law News

Prediction markets for Big Law

Prediction markets for Big Law

Prediction markets for Big Law

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Can negative mass exist?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will the US issue emergency extensions to Visas of Taiwanese citizens who are in the US at any time through 2028

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

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