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Prediction markets for Big Six

Which club will lose its 'Big Six' status first?

Feb 4, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

201425

OptionProbability

Tottenham Hotspur

Manchester City

Chelsea

Manchester United

Arsenal

Liverpool

51

19

10

8

6

5

Ed Sheeran has a billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.17%chance

10844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

796

69

Who will be the first QB from the 2024 Draft Class to win league MVP?

Feb 16, 7:22 AMFeb 17, 11:59 PM

11156

OptionProbability

Caleb Williams

Bo Nix

Drake Maye

Jayden Daniels

None before 2035

Other

33

26

19

9

6

6

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

110

Will any USMNT player get transferred to a Big Six Club before February 2028?

Apr 14, 5:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will <32gb open model match opus 5.5 at February 2027?

Oct 10, 7:08 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

325

OptionProbability

[reserved 2]

[reserved 3]

SWE bench

My subjective judgement

50

50

41

24

Will Showa American Story come out before 2027?

Dec 12, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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