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Prediction markets for Big Six

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Nov 20, 2:07 AMMay 20, 12:50 AM

6.27%chance

103934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3866

259

Which club will lose its 'Big Six' status first?

Feb 4, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

151253

OptionProbability

Tottenham Hotspur

Chelsea

Manchester United

Manchester City

Arsenal

Liverpool

50

14

11

9

8

7

Who will win the 2025-2026 KNVB Beker?

Feb 5, 9:00 PMMar 30, 10:00 PM

9850

OptionProbability

AZ

NEC

PSV

Telstar

66

32

1

1

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

110

Ed Sheeran has a billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.6%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

170

Will any USMNT player get transferred to a Big Six Club before February 2028?

Apr 14, 5:42 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Who will be the first QB from the 2024 Draft Class to win league MVP?

Feb 16, 7:22 AMFeb 17, 11:59 PM

551

OptionProbability

Drake Maye

Caleb Williams

Jayden Daniels

Bo Nix

None before 2035

Other

54

14

8

8

8

8

Will Showa American Story come out before 2027?

Dec 12, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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