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Prediction markets for Big Three

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

23459582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

662

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

228973

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

18

0

0

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

52.64%chance

393991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

983

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

332735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

715

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:12 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

91026

OptionProbability

April 1 2027, Later, or never

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

2023

Q1 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2024

59

6

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will I like Taylor Swift’s new album, The Life of a Showgirl, enough to download it?

Aug 13, 12:29 AMJan 4, 1:16 AM

35.59%chance

16584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

110

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Jun 9, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.18%chance

566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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