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Prediction markets for Big Three

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.21%chance

353253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

564

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

211899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1227

818

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

770

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.48%chance

9866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1666

600

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2035?

Jun 9, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.28%chance

6100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?

Jun 15, 4:46 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Who of the "big three" (Guzey/Ricon/Freeman) has the highest valor?

May 25, 2:05 PM

00

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