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Prediction markets for Big Three

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

332735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

715

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

What will these chonky bois become?

Nov 1, 10:25 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

12825

OptionProbability

Pie

Soup (or stew)

Roasted slices

Roasted seeds

Cookies

Sauce

Fried sides

Bread

Skewers

Rotten or spoiled

Stir fry

Chunks in a mixed veg bake

Grilled hunks

Muffins

Smashed and ruined, by accident or mischief

Stolen

100

100

100

100

100

72

59

58

55

53

50

41

41

40

32

11

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Jun 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

7125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.79%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Will GiveWell fund/recommend Ultra Poor Graduation initiatives before January 2028?

Jan 15, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.14%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

110

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2050?

Jun 9, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.82%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2075?

Jun 10, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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