Big Three News

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

Which February 2026 Nasdaq-100 rule changes will take effect before 2027?

Feb 26, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36680

OptionProbability

Fast Entry for large new listings

Use of full market cap (including unlisted share classes) for eligibility ranking

Top-125 replacement rule

5× low-free-float weighting multiplier

Removal of the 10% minimum free float requirement

Quarterly-only share updates

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

332735

OptionVotes

YES

1504

715

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

Jan 4, 10:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

162184

OptionProbability

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabalistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2027

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >50% but <90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <50% but >10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2025

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2026

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Nov 29, 6:12 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

101744

OptionProbability

April 1 2027, Later, or never

Q4 2026

Q1 2027

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

Q2 2024

2023

Q1 2024

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.12%chance

111161

OptionVotes

YES

1281

781

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

1393

720

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

1221

822

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Jun 9, 5:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

7125

OptionVotes

YES

133

Which guild will win the RWF in WoW Midnight season 1?

Mar 22, 9:39 PMApr 21, 8:37 PM

269

OptionProbability

Echo

Liquid

Method

Big Three News

Prediction markets for Big Three

Prediction markets for Big Three

Prediction markets for Big Three

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Which February 2026 Nasdaq-100 rule changes will take effect before 2027?

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

If Rootclaim/Saar analyze Al-Shifa Hospital, will they conclude it was used for "command and control activities"?

What quarter will Tesla allow me to drive from San Mateo to Palo Alto in my Model Y mostly at SAE 3+?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Will I give birth before age 30?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2030?

Which guild will win the RWF in WoW Midnight season 1?

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