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Prediction markets for Big Three

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.87%chance

384969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3738

346

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

57.81%chance

404135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

894

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Will I regret investing $500 into my startup?

Aug 11, 2:45 AMNov 11, 2:43 AM

17.58%chance

61213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2165

462

Will I give birth before age 30?

Mar 9, 3:45 PMApr 16, 2:29 PM

62.48%chance

121171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?

May 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.85%chance

11976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will the US Dollar lose Reserve Currency status before 2100?

Jun 10, 1:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.86%chance

7136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

Will Anthropic be the first among the "Big Three" private AI labs to achieve profitable quarterly earnings?

Jun 15, 4:46 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

66.07%chance

645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

72

Who of the "big three" (Guzey/Ricon/Freeman) has the highest valor?

May 25, 2:05 PM

00

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