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Prediction markets for Billionaire

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.48%chance

221101200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

471

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

21.69%chance

24148706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

1619

Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?

Jan 29, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

106100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

870

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

53.8%chance

94548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10795

9269

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

86.43%chance

212078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1953

86

Will the United States have the most Billionaires at the end of 2034?

Apr 2, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.83%chance

221793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

963

Will there be manifold billionaire by 2030

Feb 2, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.26%chance

301726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

917

Will I become a billionaire before 2053?

Apr 14, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.02%chance

251400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1582

835

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

At the end of 2026 will there be 500 or more female billionaires?

May 9, 5:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.42%chance

12225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

947

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