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Prediction markets for Billionaire

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.17%chance

428270529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

477

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

26.18%chance

24449038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1774

1729

Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?

Jan 29, 6:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

3816687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1431

514

Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?

Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM

42.82%chance

2713342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

865

Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?

Sep 13, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.02%chance

695627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2783

1747

Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?

Jun 25, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

132448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

1145

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, including crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:36 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

84%chance

222092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

100

Will the United States have the most Billionaires at the end of 2034?

Apr 2, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.83%chance

221793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

963

Will I become a billionaire before 2053?

Apr 14, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.6%chance

261463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1618

828

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

111187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

627

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

39.6%chance

19799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

506

At the end of 2026 will there be 500 or more female billionaires?

May 9, 5:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.07%chance

13275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

926

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