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Prediction markets for Bing

Was the Bing LLM trained with RLHF?

Feb 23, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.66%chance

4016683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

830

Is Bing Chat conscious?

Mar 6, 10:53 AMDec 14, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

697973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

909

Will "Binging" replace "Googling" as a term for online search by 2030?

Mar 28, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.13%chance

533262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

815

Will it be revealed by 2030 that Bing Sydney's release was partially a way to promote AI safety?

Jun 14, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.48%chance

422797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

852

Will Bing compete with Google?

Jan 4, 2:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.11%chance

201161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

864

Bing's market share of search passes google's by 2030

Dec 26, 8:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

341015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

980

Will "bing" be added as a verb in a major English dictionary by 2029?

Feb 8, 8:41 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.59%chance

14755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

906

Will Bing surpass Google by 2030?

Feb 9, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.16%chance

29627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

975

Bing's market share passes 10% by 2030 (it's 3.4% as of 12/22)

Dec 26, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

23593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

764

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in the EU on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

91.1%chance

5268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

289

33

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

79.43%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

115

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.98%chance

12175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

945

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