OptionProbability
Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)
Loss of synchronism
Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources
Low or insufficient inertia
Battery storage
Renewables made the grid less stable
Never found root cause
Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)
Bad weather
The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)
Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)
It's declared a cyber attack
Cyber attack & Russia-funded
Cyber attack & independent group
"Intern plugged wrong cable"
Cyber attack & USA-funded
94
61
20
14
12
9
7
6
4
3
2
1
X 8.00 Solar flare [or higher]
Major Volcanic Eruption (≥6 on VEI scale)
Trump says Xiaohongshu (or tries to)
Another Pandemic
X (Formerly Twitter) revives Vine
A large-scale cyberattack cripples financial systems, causing a global economic meltdown
US Buys or Invades Greenland
A law granting legal rights to AI systems is passed in a UN Member State or a US State
Elon Flips to Democrat
OpenAI Nationalized
Bitcoin Market Cap > US GDP (or this happens with another cryptocurrency)
GTA 6 released
Discovery of Alien Life
45
19
17
11
10
8
5
Row 1
Column D
Row 4
Column C
Column B
Column A
Row 2
Column E
Row 5
Row 3
Diagonal A1-E5
Diagonal A5-E1
99
82
81
73
67
64
63
62
50
OptionVotes
YES
NO
462
22
147
230
192