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Biosphere News

Will we discover alien life before 2032?

Jan 9, 1:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12.76%chance

616835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

868

Will we discover alien life before 2031?

Jan 9, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10.02%chance

405004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

975

964

Will we discover alien life before 2033?

Jan 12, 7:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.13%chance

464613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

657

Will we discover alien life before 2038?

Feb 10, 12:19 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22%chance

354481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

776

Will we discover alien life before 2034?

Jan 26, 10:57 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

16.04%chance

554064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

742

Hank Green's 2026 Bingo Card

Jan 1, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

484031

OptionProbability

Measles Outbreak

I do 1 (one) Pull-up

Blue Wave

World's First Trillionaire

Big Youtuber Quits

New Smell Invented

Chevy Bolt is a Huge Success

ad supported medical care

NVDA Down 35% From Peak

New dinosaur named for tiktok thing

World's 1st Trillionaire No longer a Trillionaire

Dark "Saved by the Bell" Reboot

Beloved actor cast as Elon in biopic

GTA6 Saves or ruins the economy

Apple Vision Amateur

Billionaire Sperm Bank

Trump Declares Himself an Olympian

Famous person marries an AI

RFK jr gets himself fired

Waymo Car learns to do donuts

Shadow Biosphere

New Particle

T.Swift Married in Montana

OpenAI Makes GPT Phone

"Don't Die" guy does funniest possible thing

89

86

83

71

69

65

64

46

41

36

35

34

31

31

31

25

19

19

18

14

13

11

6

5

3

Will we discover alien life before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22%chance

362740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

976

Will we discover alien life before 2036?

Feb 3, 6:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

252038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

721

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.54%chance

331116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

939

Will life be found in the deep biosphere of any other solar system bodies before 2035?

Oct 12, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.59%chance

61051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

24

Will a shadow biosphere be discovered on Earth before 2050

Jan 3, 2:53 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

11.42%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

93

Which planetary boundaries will be exceeded in the next Planetary Boundaries report?

Nov 20, 10:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3103

OptionProbability

Biosphere integrity

Climate change

Biochemical flow

Novel entities

Land-system change

Freshwater change

Ocean acidification

Atmospheric aerosol loading

Stratospheric ozone depletion

76

66

66

63

57

57

50

50

34

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