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Prediction markets for Biosphere

Will we discover alien life before 2032?

Jan 9, 1:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.3%chance

556246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

937

Will we discover alien life before 2035?

Feb 2, 11:35 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.39%chance

414807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

966

Will we discover alien life before 2031?

Jan 9, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.03%chance

374664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

938

Will we discover alien life before 2033?

Jan 12, 7:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.36%chance

394099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

975

Will we discover alien life before 2034?

Jan 26, 10:57 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10%chance

493725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

950

Will we discover alien life before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:43 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17.97%chance

342580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1219

922

Will we discover alien life before 2036?

Feb 3, 6:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.43%chance

231968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

968

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.54%chance

331116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

939

Will life be found in the deep biosphere of any other solar system bodies before 2035?

Oct 12, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.59%chance

61051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

24

Will a shadow biosphere be discovered on Earth before 2050

Jan 3, 2:53 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13%chance

5154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

88

Which planetary boundaries will be exceeded in the next Planetary Boundaries report?

Nov 20, 10:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3103

OptionProbability

Biosphere integrity

Climate change

Biochemical flow

Novel entities

Land-system change

Freshwater change

Ocean acidification

Atmospheric aerosol loading

Stratospheric ozone depletion

76

66

66

63

57

57

50

50

34

Would it be ethical to hook Earth's biosphere into a happiness simulation?

Jun 9, 8:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70

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