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Prediction markets for Bit Digital

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?

Nov 1, 3:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.89%chance

201256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

444

104

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?

Nov 1, 3:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8%chance

201022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

637

49

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2100?

Nov 10, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.54%chance

5424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

100

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?

Nov 1, 3:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

77.57%chance

16288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

102

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?

Nov 12, 4:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66.39%chance

6208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

101

Will RSA-260 be factored by the end of 2027?

Aug 8, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:48 PM

61.33%chance

11205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?

Nov 1, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

12129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

107

Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?

Nov 10, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.49%chance

491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

239

100

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