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Prediction markets for Bitcoin Gold

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8553764

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

British Pound (GBP)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Paperclips

Gold (Au)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

65

33

22

12

12

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

3

1

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]

Feb 3, 3:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

196610

OptionProbability

S&P 500

Gold

Bitcoin

86

9

5

Bitcoin will outperform gold from Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2030.

Feb 12, 5:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

956

Gold and silver will outperform bitcoin in 2026

Jan 2, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

162213

OptionProbability

True

False

79

21

When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?

Aug 1, 4:26 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

122022

OptionProbability

Later/Never

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2023-2024

91

3

3

1

1

1

0

Will Gold hit $1 million before Bitcoin does?

Oct 17, 12:42 PMOct 18, 12:34 PM

10.8%chance

111902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

348

Which of Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will have the worst 2026?

Feb 5, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

181809

OptionProbability

Silver

Bitcoin

Gold

52

44

4

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Will bitcoin fall below 8.98 ounces of gold by the end of 2026?

Feb 23, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.19%chance

11540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will any central bank buy a cryptocurrency (CBDC doesn't count) for their reserves by the end of 2030?

Mar 7, 12:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.07%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will bitcoin positive or negative correlate with gold price?

Mar 2, 7:39 AM

160

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