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Prediction markets for Bitcoin Gold

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7443529

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Paperclips

Manifold Mana

TRUMP

57

31

24

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

2218194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

940

When will the first mainstream article cover facts in Sokolowski, et. al. v. Silbert, et. al. Second Amended Complaint?

Jan 5, 3:11 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

87037

OptionProbability

Before 4/30/2026

Before 5/31/2026

Before 6/30/2026

Before 3/31/2026

Before 3/15/2026

Before 2/28/2026

Before 1/31/2026

Before 2/15/2026

Before 1/7/2026

Before 1/10/2026

Before 1/14/2026

Before 1/20/2026

9

9

9

8

6

5

1

1

0

0

0

0

Bitcoin will outperform gold from Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2030.

Feb 12, 5:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

956

When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?

Aug 1, 4:26 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

112008

OptionProbability

Later/Never

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2023-2024

91

3

3

1

1

1

0

Will Gold hit $1 million before Bitcoin does?

Oct 17, 12:42 PMOct 18, 12:34 PM

11%chance

101872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2844

352

Gold and silver will outperform bitcoin in 2026

Jan 2, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131052

OptionProbability

True

False

71

29

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Which of Bitcoin, Gold and Silver will have the worst 2026?

Feb 5, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10718

OptionProbability

Bitcoin

Silver

Gold

71

23

7

Will any central bank buy a cryptocurrency (CBDC doesn't count) for their reserves by the end of 2030?

Mar 7, 12:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.07%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 [Polymarket]

Feb 3, 3:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Gold

Bitcoin

S&P 500

44

28

28

Will bitcoin positive or negative correlate with gold price?

Mar 2, 7:39 AM

160

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