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OptionProbability
He leaves Argentina during his first term
He travels to Chile during his first term
He travels to Brazil during his first term
He is photographed with Elon Musk
A photo of him with Trump is released
A photo of Milei with Biden is released
His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position
Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?
Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]
Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better
He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released
His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered
Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]
Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]
Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39
Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?
Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%
According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]
There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.
He wins reelection to a 2nd term
A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]
The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]
LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?
Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place
Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish
He travels to Bolivia
LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?
Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]
US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina
Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup
Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term
He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX
Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)
He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal
Will he ever be TIME person of the year?
He marries during his first term
Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees
He goes incommunicado for at least a week
Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)
He officially converts to Judaism
He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term
He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week
Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup
He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it
Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term
He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years
There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired
He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]
The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office
He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]
Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)
Argentina will win the 2026 world cup
He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]
The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use
Argentina will declare war
He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office
He travels to Russia during his first term
Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?
He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election
He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash
There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side
He has a child during his first term
He is excommunicated by the catholic church
He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]
He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash
He passes away during his first term before completion
Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week
Will Argentina join BRICS?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
91
85
84
83
81
78
76
71
70
67
60
56
55
55
50
48
47
46
45
44
41
40
40
40
38
36
34
31
31
29
28
26
26
25
25
23
21
20
20
17
15
13
13
12
11
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
[With five or more methods]
With their bare hands
With a weapon that the victim brought to the fight.
With a gadget or other ingenious device from Q
Other
With a hand gun
In the dark
With a long arm (a firearm larger than a pistol).
With a Walther PP or PPK handgun
By causing a structural collapse under them.
Slap
Drowning them
By pushing them off something high up
Sideswiping them with a car
Choking them
Silently, but deadly
With a named MMA submission (e.g., rear-naked choke, arm bar, kimura lock, etc.)
With a knife
Dropping something heavy on them
With electricity
By driving over them in a car
Biting
With a Kalashnikov Rifle (e.g. AK47)
Flambé /Fire
hurts someone's feelings (character in question must state this)
With a timed explosive device
By opening a hatch/airlock
With poison
Drone strike
With his cock (like a fighting Rooster; get yer minds outta that gutter)
Electrocution / With electricity
With a power tool normally used for construction
Lures them into a booby-trapped room
By calling in artillery or missile strike
Arranging for them to be attacked by an animal
With a piece of sporting equipment
Sonic weapon
With a chain
Flying/jump/drop kick
With a grenade
With a flamethrower
Punch to the groin
With a lazer based weapon
With a missle
Friendly fire (Bond unintentionally injures an ally)
With nanobots
Ejector seat
Big stick
With a sling shot
Crashing a plane into them
With a harpoon gun
With a crossbow
By pushing them into a spinning blade
By shaking them, not stirring them
By riding over them with a motorcycle
Killing them with kindness
Non-knife kitchen utensil
By running into them with a submarine
Rape
With microwaves
With a motherfucking snake on a motherfucking plane
Causing them to crash into a wall by painting a tunnel onto it
Piano where hitting a certain note causes it to explode but Bond plays the song incorrectly and then the villain shows him how to play it correctly
93
92
87
86
82
80
74
68
66
56
56
54
54
54
54
52
48
44
44
41
40
40
38
38
38
36
33
32
31
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
20
19
19
18
16
16
15
13
12
11
11
10
10
9
8
7
2
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1761
462
OptionProbability
I will be happy after Dr. Tehrany breaks my jaw
I will be happy after Dr. Yafai breaks my jaw
67
55
OptionProbability
Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)
Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section
Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("
Friend who took a long time in the bathroom
Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers
Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth
Sketchy human ATM
Depression after a team I never heard of loses
Before Sunrise POV in record shop
Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is
Glass of Thrones letdown
Remembering that PBR was a thing
Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall
A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)
Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty
Candy addiction hotline
Friend who thinks they're safety officer
Brainstorming how to become viral
Slytherin doing the math
Cheap Airbnb tour
American Express review
Future Me
Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow
How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)
Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company
NFC Translation
Satire of sales ads
Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.
Every time I try to order a beer
Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot
Thinking I'm admiring the view from the Tokyo Skytower only to reveal that I don't realize I'm actually at the base of it.
100
100
100
76
75
71
69
68
66
66
59
59
59
58
58
56
54
53
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
45
41
37
0
OptionProbability
NO
YES
227
175
OptionProbability
30-39k
<10k
10-19k
20-29k
40-49k
50-59k
60-69k
70-79k
80-89k
>89k
24
17
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7