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Prediction markets for BITS

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

527371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

768

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.78%chance

464841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

964

918

Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute?

May 7, 7:44 PMJul 13, 4:59 AM

13.62%chance

10326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

106

Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?

Nov 30, 1:35 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8138

OptionProbability

Neutral atoms

Silicon qubits

Superconducting qubits

Trapped ions

Discrete variable photonic

Continuous variable photonic

36

36

9

9

5

5

When will 1%+ of processors produced in a year have a word size of 128 bits or more?

Aug 15, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4122

OptionProbability

Before 2226

Before 2176

Before 2126

Before 2076

76

72

66

59

256-bit ECC will be broken by 2032

May 8, 6:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.28%chance

4108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

50

When will a processor with 256 or more bits per word successfully run a computer with at least 1GB memory at 1ghz+?

Aug 22, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3108

OptionProbability

Before 2146

Before 2116

Before 2056

Before 2086

90

76

66

66

Will "It's Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:30 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

24%chance

297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

566

Two Bit DaVinci achieves 1 Mill followers by Mar. 1, 2027. His current video is "A New Era of Computer Chips Has Begun".

Jun 2, 12:49 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Resource use of quantum 256-bit ECDLP attacks EoY 2028

Apr 2, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates

≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 50 million Toffoli gates

≤ 950 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates

50

50

28

Will bits in bio slack (bitsinbio.slack.com) finally upgrade so people can have access to more than 90 days, by EOY2027?

Apr 27, 8:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.32%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Neuralink achieve "combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs" by 2030?

Dec 14, 5:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.04%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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