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Top stories

US Designates Balochistan Liberation Army and Majeed Brigade as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, Supporting Pakistan's India Proxy Allegation

US Foreign Policy

US Designates Balochistan Liberation Army and Majeed Brigade as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, Supporting Pakistan's India Proxy Allegation

Authors

22

6 months ago

Balochistan Security Forces Foil August 14 Terrorist Attack, Arrest Lecturer Osman Qazi, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti Confirms

Balochistan Security Forces Foil August 14 Terrorist Attack, Arrest Lecturer Osman Qazi, Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti Confirms

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for BLA

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.91%chance

9183970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

362

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32786

3050

Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece

Jan 3, 10:26 PMOct 3, 4:59 AM

60.48%chance

15918660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

774

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516349

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

17

13

13

10

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

2813301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20647

4843

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87.72%chance

14312669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3353

1329

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

46.49%chance

756150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

944

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1587

228

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?

Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.25%chance

503304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

918

how many B30A / Blackwell GPUs will China purchase by EOY 2026

Dec 12, 3:04 PMDec 31, 3:04 PM

42955

OptionProbability

<10000

10,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 333,333

333,334 - 999,999

1,000,000+

33

27

19

12

10

Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life

Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.26%chance

222440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

783

99 OVR LeBron vs 99OVR Jordan in Blacktop Game to 21?

Jan 21, 12:10 PMFeb 18, 12:08 PM

00

OptionProbability

LeBron

Jordan

50

50

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