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Prediction markets for BLA
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.23%chance
9083678
OptionVotes
1321
337
Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?
Nov 3, 6:08 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM
25%chance
14319640
OptionVotes
3527
720
Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece
Jan 3, 10:26 PMOct 3, 4:59 AM
60.3%chance
15617684
OptionVotes
1079
770
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
84%chance
14011901
OptionVotes
2670
1441
Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
31.7%chance
207035
OptionVotes
14677
6813
Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?
Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM
39.02%chance
756000
OptionVotes
1263
1146
Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?
Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
12.68%chance
505971
OptionVotes
3000
768
Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?
Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.1%chance
443342
OptionVotes
1599
223
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
Feb 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
19.71%chance
463064
OptionVotes
1148
938
Will Elon Musk blame psychoactive substance use for past Trump-era statements/actions at any point in his life
Feb 12, 1:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36.7%chance
212430
OptionVotes
1500
773
Will my halloween costume 2025 be the yeezy swastika t-shirt and brown face paint (realistic blackface) to go as Kanye?
Feb 12, 7:49 AMNov 1, 2:59 PM
31.37%chance
121171
OptionVotes
1479
676
Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?
Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
50.88%chance
6195
OptionVotes
1018
983